Ongoing maritime friction between China and the Philippines, including multiple July 2026 incidents at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal involving water cannons, vessel maneuvers, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor, has sustained tensions without triggering direct naval combat. Beijing and Manila continue trading diplomatic protests while both pursue parallel tracks of coast guard enforcement and ASEAN-led Code of Conduct negotiations, with officials expressing hope for progress by year-end. Expanded U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime exercises and alliance commitments appear to reinforce deterrence against major escalation. Traders price the 66.5% likelihood of no full military clash before 2027 around these persistent but contained grey-zone tactics, short remaining timeline, and shared incentives to avoid triggering mutual defense obligations or broader regional conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
34% 確率
$113,504 Vol.
$113,504 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
34% 確率
$113,504 Vol.
$113,504 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime friction between China and the Philippines, including multiple July 2026 incidents at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal involving water cannons, vessel maneuvers, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor, has sustained tensions without triggering direct naval combat. Beijing and Manila continue trading diplomatic protests while both pursue parallel tracks of coast guard enforcement and ASEAN-led Code of Conduct negotiations, with officials expressing hope for progress by year-end. Expanded U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime exercises and alliance commitments appear to reinforce deterrence against major escalation. Traders price the 66.5% likelihood of no full military clash before 2027 around these persistent but contained grey-zone tactics, short remaining timeline, and shared incentives to avoid triggering mutual defense obligations or broader regional conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$113,504終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime friction between China and the Philippines, including multiple July 2026 incidents at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal involving water cannons, vessel maneuvers, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor, has sustained tensions without triggering direct naval combat. Beijing and Manila continue trading diplomatic protests while both pursue parallel tracks of coast guard enforcement and ASEAN-led Code of Conduct negotiations, with officials expressing hope for progress by year-end. Expanded U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime exercises and alliance commitments appear to reinforce deterrence against major escalation. Traders price the 66.5% likelihood of no full military clash before 2027 around these persistent but contained grey-zone tactics, short remaining timeline, and shared incentives to avoid triggering mutual defense obligations or broader regional conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$113,504終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing maritime friction between China and the Philippines, including multiple July 2026 incidents at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal involving water cannons, vessel maneuvers, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor, has sustained tensions without triggering direct naval combat. Beijing and Manila continue trading diplomatic protests while both pursue parallel tracks of coast guard enforcement and ASEAN-led Code of Conduct negotiations, with officials expressing hope for progress by year-end. Expanded U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime exercises and alliance commitments appear to reinforce deterrence against major escalation. Traders price the 66.5% likelihood of no full military clash before 2027 around these persistent but contained grey-zone tactics, short remaining timeline, and shared incentives to avoid triggering mutual defense obligations or broader regional conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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