Recent August Core PCE inflation printed at 3.0% year-over-year, below consensus expectations of 3.3% and unchanged from the prior month after BEA annual revisions and methodology updates lowered prior readings. Stronger-than-expected consumer spending and a 0.2% monthly core gain contributed to the softer outcome, easing some pressure on Fed rate-hike probabilities ahead of the October FOMC. With the September release due later this month, trader-implied odds remain closely split between 3.0% and 3.1%, reflecting uncertainty over whether underlying price pressures will reaccelerate amid resilient demand or continue moderating toward the 2% target. Key upcoming catalysts include October employment data and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation expectations.
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