The May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil vacancy in Dublin Central has entered its final week, with a recent Irish Times/TG4 Ipsos poll showing Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan leading first-preference support at 21 percent, followed by Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis on 18 percent, independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent, and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam at 13 percent. Under Ireland’s single transferable vote system, Ennis benefits from strong transfer potential from eliminated candidates across the centre-left and moderate spectrum, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments. Hutch’s independent run draws attention but faces barriers to broader second preferences, while Fianna Fáil trails significantly. The close first-preference spread and emphasis on late-count transfers remain the dominant factors shaping expectations for the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ダニエル・エニス 68%
ジャニス・ボイラン 24.0%
ゲリー・ハッチ 9.9%
マラキー・スティーソン 2.1%
$1,089,564 Vol.
$1,089,564 Vol.
ダニエル・エニス
68%
ジャニス・ボイラン
18%
ゲリー・ハッチ
10%
マラキー・スティーソン
2%
レイ・マカダム
2%
ギリアン・シェラット
1%
イアン・ノエル・スミス
<1%
ジャネット・ホーナー
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
セーアマス・マグラッタン
<1%
メアリー・フィッツパトリック
<1%
ジョン・スティーブンズ
<1%
ダニエル・エニス 68%
ジャニス・ボイラン 24.0%
ゲリー・ハッチ 9.9%
マラキー・スティーソン 2.1%
$1,089,564 Vol.
$1,089,564 Vol.
ダニエル・エニス
68%
ジャニス・ボイラン
18%
ゲリー・ハッチ
10%
マラキー・スティーソン
2%
レイ・マカダム
2%
ギリアン・シェラット
1%
イアン・ノエル・スミス
<1%
ジャネット・ホーナー
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
セーアマス・マグラッタン
<1%
メアリー・フィッツパトリック
<1%
ジョン・スティーブンズ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil vacancy in Dublin Central has entered its final week, with a recent Irish Times/TG4 Ipsos poll showing Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan leading first-preference support at 21 percent, followed by Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis on 18 percent, independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent, and Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam at 13 percent. Under Ireland’s single transferable vote system, Ennis benefits from strong transfer potential from eliminated candidates across the centre-left and moderate spectrum, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments. Hutch’s independent run draws attention but faces barriers to broader second preferences, while Fianna Fáil trails significantly. The close first-preference spread and emphasis on late-count transfers remain the dominant factors shaping expectations for the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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