Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing eurozone headline inflation projections to 2.6–2.9 percent for 2026 and above the ECB’s 2 percent target. This has shifted trader consensus toward at least one rate increase before year-end, with Bloomberg economist surveys now forecasting quarter-point hikes at the June and September meetings. The Governing Council left the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2 percent following its April 30 decision yet signaled readiness for tightening on a data-dependent basis, reinforced by hawkish comments from officials on upside inflation risks. These developments have aligned market pricing closely with the 92 percent implied probability of a 2026 hike.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$114,268 Vol.
$114,268 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$114,268 Vol.
$114,268 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing eurozone headline inflation projections to 2.6–2.9 percent for 2026 and above the ECB’s 2 percent target. This has shifted trader consensus toward at least one rate increase before year-end, with Bloomberg economist surveys now forecasting quarter-point hikes at the June and September meetings. The Governing Council left the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2 percent following its April 30 decision yet signaled readiness for tightening on a data-dependent basis, reinforced by hawkish comments from officials on upside inflation risks. These developments have aligned market pricing closely with the 92 percent implied probability of a 2026 hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
音量
$114,268終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing eurozone headline inflation projections to 2.6–2.9 percent for 2026 and above the ECB’s 2 percent target. This has shifted trader consensus toward at least one rate increase before year-end, with Bloomberg economist surveys now forecasting quarter-point hikes at the June and September meetings. The Governing Council left the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2 percent following its April 30 decision yet signaled readiness for tightening on a data-dependent basis, reinforced by hawkish comments from officials on upside inflation risks. These developments have aligned market pricing closely with the 92 percent implied probability of a 2026 hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$114,268終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing eurozone headline inflation projections to 2.6–2.9 percent for 2026 and above the ECB’s 2 percent target. This has shifted trader consensus toward at least one rate increase before year-end, with Bloomberg economist surveys now forecasting quarter-point hikes at the June and September meetings. The Governing Council left the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2 percent following its April 30 decision yet signaled readiness for tightening on a data-dependent basis, reinforced by hawkish comments from officials on upside inflation risks. These developments have aligned market pricing closely with the 92 percent implied probability of a 2026 hike.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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