**Recent FBI searches and the early stage of multiple investigations into sexual assault allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell make charges by September 30 unlikely in traders' assessment.** Swalwell resigned from Congress and ended his California gubernatorial bid in April 2026 after several women accused him of sexual misconduct, including non-consensual acts while intoxicated. Federal authorities opened a probe under statutes such as 18 U.S.C. § 242, while the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department pursued parallel state-level inquiries. On August 20, 2026, FBI agents seized Swalwell’s electronic devices at San Francisco International Airport and searched his Washington, D.C., residence—actions that signal active evidence gathering rather than imminent charging decisions. These developments, alongside the prior release of declassified files on a decade-old counterintelligence matter that produced no charges, underscore ongoing scrutiny but also the procedural timelines typical of complex cases involving former public officials. Local and federal reviews of witness statements, device data, and corroborating evidence generally require additional weeks or months before prosecutors seek indictments. Traders price the low probability of a filing within the narrow remaining window accordingly, reflecting standard investigative pacing rather than any resolution of the underlying allegations.