Recent moderation in inflation readings and a softening labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 61.5% implied probability. July CPI and PPI data showed only modest gains with annual core measures easing toward 2.5%, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1% amid tepid payroll growth, reducing urgency for immediate tightening despite earlier energy-driven price spikes. This data trajectory supports the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range into year-end, with futures markets pricing limited further adjustment by early 2027. The 20% odds of a 25 basis point hike capture residual hawkish concerns from divided FOMC votes and above-target inflation, while lower probabilities for cuts highlight resilient growth and limited downside risks. Key upcoming releases on August CPI and September employment data will shape revisions ahead of the next policy decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.1%
$34,538 Vol.
$34,538 Vol.
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
20%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
2%
No change 62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.1%
$34,538 Vol.
$34,538 Vol.
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
$3,886 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$7,417 Vol.
15%
No change
$13,728 Vol.
62%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$8,045 Vol.
20%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$1,463 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent moderation in inflation readings and a softening labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 61.5% implied probability. July CPI and PPI data showed only modest gains with annual core measures easing toward 2.5%, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1% amid tepid payroll growth, reducing urgency for immediate tightening despite earlier energy-driven price spikes. This data trajectory supports the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range into year-end, with futures markets pricing limited further adjustment by early 2027. The 20% odds of a 25 basis point hike capture residual hawkish concerns from divided FOMC votes and above-target inflation, while lower probabilities for cuts highlight resilient growth and limited downside risks. Key upcoming releases on August CPI and September employment data will shape revisions ahead of the next policy decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
音量
$34,538終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent moderation in inflation readings and a softening labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 61.5% implied probability. July CPI and PPI data showed only modest gains with annual core measures easing toward 2.5%, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1% amid tepid payroll growth, reducing urgency for immediate tightening despite earlier energy-driven price spikes. This data trajectory supports the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range into year-end, with futures markets pricing limited further adjustment by early 2027. The 20% odds of a 25 basis point hike capture residual hawkish concerns from divided FOMC votes and above-target inflation, while lower probabilities for cuts highlight resilient growth and limited downside risks. Key upcoming releases on August CPI and September employment data will shape revisions ahead of the next policy decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$34,538終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in inflation readings and a softening labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 61.5% implied probability. July CPI and PPI data showed only modest gains with annual core measures easing toward 2.5%, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1% amid tepid payroll growth, reducing urgency for immediate tightening despite earlier energy-driven price spikes. This data trajectory supports the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range into year-end, with futures markets pricing limited further adjustment by early 2027. The 20% odds of a 25 basis point hike capture residual hawkish concerns from divided FOMC votes and above-target inflation, while lower probabilities for cuts highlight resilient growth and limited downside risks. Key upcoming releases on August CPI and September employment data will shape revisions ahead of the next policy decision.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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