Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies, including the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, have converged on a daytime high of 26°C for Moscow on May 17, driven by a stable high-pressure system and southerly flow that has warmed the region above seasonal normals. This consensus aligns with current surface observations showing afternoon temperatures approaching that mark under mostly clear skies. Historical May averages near 18–20°C underscore how today’s mild conditions represent a modest warm anomaly rather than an extreme. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 26°C could shift only if real-time station data records a slightly higher or lower peak due to localized urban heat effects or minor timing differences in the daily maximum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のモスクワの最高気温は?
26°C 99.8%
27°C <1%
28°C or higher <1%
18°C or below <1%
$44,340 Vol.
$44,340 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.8%
27°C <1%
28°C or higher <1%
18°C or below <1%
$44,340 Vol.
$44,340 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent forecast models from major meteorological agencies, including the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, have converged on a daytime high of 26°C for Moscow on May 17, driven by a stable high-pressure system and southerly flow that has warmed the region above seasonal normals. This consensus aligns with current surface observations showing afternoon temperatures approaching that mark under mostly clear skies. Historical May averages near 18–20°C underscore how today’s mild conditions represent a modest warm anomaly rather than an extreme. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 26°C could shift only if real-time station data records a slightly higher or lower peak due to localized urban heat effects or minor timing differences in the daily maximum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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