**Persistent summer heat moderated by incoming moisture and instability is the main driver keeping trader focus tightly clustered around 30–32°C for Tokyo’s August 27 maximum.** Recent model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show a transition from hot, mostly clear conditions on the 25–26th (forecast highs 33–34°C) to increasing cloud cover, humidity, and a 65–85% probability of afternoon showers or thunderstorms on the 27th. These factors limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling, capping the daily peak near or slightly below the seasonal average of ~31°C. Minor differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity, which can suppress the high by 1–3°C if storms develop earlier or intensify. Current ensemble spread and short-range updates from the National Hurricane Center’s Pacific analogs plus JMA guidance keep the market-implied odds closely matched while highlighting the sensitivity of the daily maximum to precipitation onset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月27日の東京の最高気温は？
8月27日の東京の最高気温は？
31°C 29%
32°C 25%
30°C 22%
33°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/08/27
27°C or below
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
22%
31°C
29%
32°C
25%
33°C
13%
34°C
5%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 29%
32°C 25%
30°C 22%
33°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/08/27
27°C or below
$169 Vol.
2%
28°C
$10 Vol.
4%
29°C
$351 Vol.
4%
30°C
$119 Vol.
22%
31°C
$34 Vol.
29%
32°C
$224 Vol.
25%
33°C
$20 Vol.
13%
34°C
$48 Vol.
5%
35°C
$18 Vol.
3%
36°C
$959 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$218 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent summer heat moderated by incoming moisture and instability is the main driver keeping trader focus tightly clustered around 30–32°C for Tokyo’s August 27 maximum.** Recent model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show a transition from hot, mostly clear conditions on the 25–26th (forecast highs 33–34°C) to increasing cloud cover, humidity, and a 65–85% probability of afternoon showers or thunderstorms on the 27th. These factors limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling, capping the daily peak near or slightly below the seasonal average of ~31°C. Minor differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity, which can suppress the high by 1–3°C if storms develop earlier or intensify. Current ensemble spread and short-range updates from the National Hurricane Center’s Pacific analogs plus JMA guidance keep the market-implied odds closely matched while highlighting the sensitivity of the daily maximum to precipitation onset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$2,168終了日
2026/08/27マーケット開始日
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent summer heat moderated by incoming moisture and instability is the main driver keeping trader focus tightly clustered around 30–32°C for Tokyo’s August 27 maximum.** Recent model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show a transition from hot, mostly clear conditions on the 25–26th (forecast highs 33–34°C) to increasing cloud cover, humidity, and a 65–85% probability of afternoon showers or thunderstorms on the 27th. These factors limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling, capping the daily peak near or slightly below the seasonal average of ~31°C. Minor differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity, which can suppress the high by 1–3°C if storms develop earlier or intensify. Current ensemble spread and short-range updates from the National Hurricane Center’s Pacific analogs plus JMA guidance keep the market-implied odds closely matched while highlighting the sensitivity of the daily maximum to precipitation onset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$2,168終了日
2026/08/27マーケット開始日
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Persistent summer heat moderated by incoming moisture and instability is the main driver keeping trader focus tightly clustered around 30–32°C for Tokyo’s August 27 maximum.** Recent model runs from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show a transition from hot, mostly clear conditions on the 25–26th (forecast highs 33–34°C) to increasing cloud cover, humidity, and a 65–85% probability of afternoon showers or thunderstorms on the 27th. These factors limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling, capping the daily peak near or slightly below the seasonal average of ~31°C. Minor differences among 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C outcomes hinge on the precise timing and intensity of convective activity, which can suppress the high by 1–3°C if storms develop earlier or intensify. Current ensemble spread and short-range updates from the National Hurricane Center’s Pacific analogs plus JMA guidance keep the market-implied odds closely matched while highlighting the sensitivity of the daily maximum to precipitation onset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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