**Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and WeatherBug indicate a daytime maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on September 2, 2026, under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with strong northwesterly winds.** These conditions align with early-spring climatology for the region, where average September highs hover near 13–15°C amid variable southerly or northwesterly flows. The market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C (64.5% implied probability) versus 15°C (19%) and 17°C (12.5%) reflects trader assessment of slight upward bias in ensemble guidance, possibly from transient warming under NW winds or model spread favoring the higher end of the range. Key drivers include persistent northwesterly flow advecting milder air, low precipitation risk, and the absence of strong southerly outbreaks that typically suppress temperatures. Historical analogs show September maxima in Wellington rarely exceed 18°C without significant synoptic warming, keeping lower-probability outcomes (18°C and above) below 5% combined. With resolution imminent, any final model update from MetService or NIWA on September 1 could shift implied odds if winds or cloud cover deviate from current consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月2日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
9月2日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
16°C 65%
15°C 19%
17°C 13%
18°C 4%
新規
新規
2026/09/02
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
19%
16°C
65%
17°C
13%
18°C
4%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 65%
15°C 19%
17°C 13%
18°C 4%
新規
新規
2026/09/02
10°C or below
$295 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$313 Vol.
1%
12°C
$397 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$258 Vol.
1%
14°C
$285 Vol.
2%
15°C
$1,853 Vol.
19%
16°C
$577 Vol.
65%
17°C
$311 Vol.
13%
18°C
$111 Vol.
4%
19°C
$227 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$222 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and WeatherBug indicate a daytime maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on September 2, 2026, under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with strong northwesterly winds.** These conditions align with early-spring climatology for the region, where average September highs hover near 13–15°C amid variable southerly or northwesterly flows. The market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C (64.5% implied probability) versus 15°C (19%) and 17°C (12.5%) reflects trader assessment of slight upward bias in ensemble guidance, possibly from transient warming under NW winds or model spread favoring the higher end of the range.
Key drivers include persistent northwesterly flow advecting milder air, low precipitation risk, and the absence of strong southerly outbreaks that typically suppress temperatures. Historical analogs show September maxima in Wellington rarely exceed 18°C without significant synoptic warming, keeping lower-probability outcomes (18°C and above) below 5% combined. With resolution imminent, any final model update from MetService or NIWA on September 1 could shift implied odds if winds or cloud cover deviate from current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$4,849終了日
2026/09/02マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and WeatherBug indicate a daytime maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on September 2, 2026, under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with strong northwesterly winds.** These conditions align with early-spring climatology for the region, where average September highs hover near 13–15°C amid variable southerly or northwesterly flows. The market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C (64.5% implied probability) versus 15°C (19%) and 17°C (12.5%) reflects trader assessment of slight upward bias in ensemble guidance, possibly from transient warming under NW winds or model spread favoring the higher end of the range.
Key drivers include persistent northwesterly flow advecting milder air, low precipitation risk, and the absence of strong southerly outbreaks that typically suppress temperatures. Historical analogs show September maxima in Wellington rarely exceed 18°C without significant synoptic warming, keeping lower-probability outcomes (18°C and above) below 5% combined. With resolution imminent, any final model update from MetService or NIWA on September 1 could shift implied odds if winds or cloud cover deviate from current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$4,849終了日
2026/09/02マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and WeatherBug indicate a daytime maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on September 2, 2026, under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with strong northwesterly winds.** These conditions align with early-spring climatology for the region, where average September highs hover near 13–15°C amid variable southerly or northwesterly flows. The market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C (64.5% implied probability) versus 15°C (19%) and 17°C (12.5%) reflects trader assessment of slight upward bias in ensemble guidance, possibly from transient warming under NW winds or model spread favoring the higher end of the range. Key drivers include persistent northwesterly flow advecting milder air, low precipitation risk, and the absence of strong southerly outbreaks that typically suppress temperatures. Historical analogs show September maxima in Wellington rarely exceed 18°C without significant synoptic warming, keeping lower-probability outcomes (18°C and above) below 5% combined. With resolution imminent, any final model update from MetService or NIWA on September 1 could shift implied odds if winds or cloud cover deviate from current consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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