Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a highest temperature of 80-81°F in New York City on August 31, 2026, as the most likely outcome given partly sunny skies, northwest flow near 5 mph, and only a 20% chance of light showers that would limit solar heating. This consensus aligns with trader weighting of the 80-81°F bin at 36.5% and 82-83°F at 25%, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing. Late-August climatology shows highs typically near 81°F, and current observations of cooler 76-77°F maxima on August 29 indicate a stable air mass without significant warm advection. Updated model runs over the next 24-48 hours will refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月31日のニューヨーク市の最高気温は？
8月31日のニューヨーク市の最高気温は？
80～81°F 37%
82〜83°F 25%
78〜79°F 17%
84〜85°F 8%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
華氏73度以下
2%
74〜75°F
6%
76〜77°F
5%
78〜79°F
17%
80～81°F
37%
82〜83°F
25%
84〜85°F
8%
86～87°F
4%
88〜89°F
1%
90〜91°F
1%
92°F以上
1%
80～81°F 37%
82〜83°F 25%
78〜79°F 17%
84〜85°F 8%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
華氏73度以下
$60 Vol.
2%
74〜75°F
$0 Vol.
6%
76〜77°F
$0 Vol.
5%
78〜79°F
$0 Vol.
17%
80～81°F
$343 Vol.
37%
82〜83°F
$37 Vol.
25%
84〜85°F
$167 Vol.
8%
86～87°F
$0 Vol.
4%
88〜89°F
$0 Vol.
1%
90〜91°F
$0 Vol.
1%
92°F以上
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a highest temperature of 80-81°F in New York City on August 31, 2026, as the most likely outcome given partly sunny skies, northwest flow near 5 mph, and only a 20% chance of light showers that would limit solar heating. This consensus aligns with trader weighting of the 80-81°F bin at 36.5% and 82-83°F at 25%, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing. Late-August climatology shows highs typically near 81°F, and current observations of cooler 76-77°F maxima on August 29 indicate a stable air mass without significant warm advection. Updated model runs over the next 24-48 hours will refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 29, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
音量
$608終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 29, 2026, 2:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a highest temperature of 80-81°F in New York City on August 31, 2026, as the most likely outcome given partly sunny skies, northwest flow near 5 mph, and only a 20% chance of light showers that would limit solar heating. This consensus aligns with trader weighting of the 80-81°F bin at 36.5% and 82-83°F at 25%, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing. Late-August climatology shows highs typically near 81°F, and current observations of cooler 76-77°F maxima on August 29 indicate a stable air mass without significant warm advection. Updated model runs over the next 24-48 hours will refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$608終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 29, 2026, 2:56 AM ETRecent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a highest temperature of 80-81°F in New York City on August 31, 2026, as the most likely outcome given partly sunny skies, northwest flow near 5 mph, and only a 20% chance of light showers that would limit solar heating. This consensus aligns with trader weighting of the 80-81°F bin at 36.5% and 82-83°F at 25%, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud timing. Late-August climatology shows highs typically near 81°F, and current observations of cooler 76-77°F maxima on August 29 indicate a stable air mass without significant warm advection. Updated model runs over the next 24-48 hours will refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問