**Current short-range forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and the Met Office indicate a low of 57°F (upper 50s) for San Francisco on August 31 under mostly cloudy skies with southwest winds of 10–20 mph.** This aligns closely with the historical average low of 56.1°F and recent nights in the mid-50s. Marine-layer stratus and typical late-summer onshore flow are expected to limit radiational cooling, keeping overnight temperatures from dropping further while preventing significant warming. Model consensus shows little change through the period, with minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns. The market-implied probabilities—led by 56–57°F at 44.5%—reflect traders weighting the latest model runs and climatological norms, with secondary support for 58–59°F. Lower outcomes (below 54°F) carry reduced odds given the absence of anomalous cold-air advection, while higher readings would require an unexpected breakdown in the marine influence. Updated NWS or NOAA guidance over the next 24–48 hours remains the key variable that could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月31日のサンフランシスコの最低気温は?
66°F以上 53%
52〜53°F 49%
60〜61°F 49%
62~63°F 49%
47°F以下
47%
48~49°F
18%
50~51°F
15%
52〜53°F
49%
54〜55°F
25%
56~57°F
45%
58~59°F
32%
60〜61°F
49%
62~63°F
49%
64〜65°F
49%
66°F以上
53%
66°F以上 53%
52〜53°F 49%
60〜61°F 49%
62~63°F 49%
47°F以下
47%
48~49°F
18%
50~51°F
15%
52〜53°F
49%
54〜55°F
25%
56~57°F
45%
58~59°F
32%
60〜61°F
49%
62~63°F
49%
64〜65°F
49%
66°F以上
53%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 29, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
**Current short-range forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and the Met Office indicate a low of 57°F (upper 50s) for San Francisco on August 31 under mostly cloudy skies with southwest winds of 10–20 mph.** This aligns closely with the historical average low of 56.1°F and recent nights in the mid-50s. Marine-layer stratus and typical late-summer onshore flow are expected to limit radiational cooling, keeping overnight temperatures from dropping further while preventing significant warming. Model consensus shows little change through the period, with minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns. The market-implied probabilities—led by 56–57°F at 44.5%—reflect traders weighting the latest model runs and climatological norms, with secondary support for 58–59°F. Lower outcomes (below 54°F) carry reduced odds given the absence of anomalous cold-air advection, while higher readings would require an unexpected breakdown in the marine influence. Updated NWS or NOAA guidance over the next 24–48 hours remains the key variable that could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問