NOAA’s August update maintains its below-normal 2026 Atlantic outlook, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season after only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-August. Persistent El Niño conditions have elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing organization and intensification as confirmed by NHC monitoring and CSU seasonal analysis. With the climatological peak approaching in early September, model consensus and historical analogs under similar ENSO states support limited additional formation, creating genuine uncertainty between the 1–3 and 4–6 ranges that currently tie in trader sentiment. Updated forecast guidance and early-September observations will provide key resolution signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年の大西洋ハリケーンシーズンには何回のハリケーンが発生しますか？
2026年の大西洋ハリケーンシーズンには何回のハリケーンが発生しますか？
4-6 46%
1-3 46%
7+ 7%
0 7%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
0
7%
1-3
46%
4-6
38%
7+
18%
4-6 46%
1-3 46%
7+ 7%
0 7%
新規
新規
2026/12/31
0
$233 Vol.
7%
1-3
$310 Vol.
46%
4-6
$335 Vol.
38%
7+
$125 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.NOAA’s August update maintains its below-normal 2026 Atlantic outlook, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season after only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-August. Persistent El Niño conditions have elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing organization and intensification as confirmed by NHC monitoring and CSU seasonal analysis. With the climatological peak approaching in early September, model consensus and historical analogs under similar ENSO states support limited additional formation, creating genuine uncertainty between the 1–3 and 4–6 ranges that currently tie in trader sentiment. Updated forecast guidance and early-September observations will provide key resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
音量
$1,002終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.NOAA’s August update maintains its below-normal 2026 Atlantic outlook, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season after only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-August. Persistent El Niño conditions have elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing organization and intensification as confirmed by NHC monitoring and CSU seasonal analysis. With the climatological peak approaching in early September, model consensus and historical analogs under similar ENSO states support limited additional formation, creating genuine uncertainty between the 1–3 and 4–6 ranges that currently tie in trader sentiment. Updated forecast guidance and early-September observations will provide key resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
音量
$1,002終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...NOAA’s August update maintains its below-normal 2026 Atlantic outlook, forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November season after only three tropical storms and zero hurricanes through mid-August. Persistent El Niño conditions have elevated vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing organization and intensification as confirmed by NHC monitoring and CSU seasonal analysis. With the climatological peak approaching in early September, model consensus and historical analogs under similar ENSO states support limited additional formation, creating genuine uncertainty between the 1–3 and 4–6 ranges that currently tie in trader sentiment. Updated forecast guidance and early-September observations will provide key resolution signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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