In Illinois’s 4th congressional district, a solidly Democratic Chicago-area seat with a partisan voting index of D+17, Democratic nominee Patty Garcia holds a commanding position after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retired in November 2025 and cleared her path to an unopposed primary victory on March 17, 2026. Her endorsements from the retiring representative and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, combined with established party infrastructure, contrast with the Republican nominee Lupe Castillo’s limited fundraising and prior 40-point defeat in the district. Independent candidates have filed but show no viability in available polling. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals, though a major scandal involving Garcia or an unforeseen national midterm surge could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$46,392 Vol.
$46,392 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$46,392 Vol.
$46,392 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$31,938 Vol.
96%
共和党
$14,454 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Illinois’s 4th congressional district, a solidly Democratic Chicago-area seat with a partisan voting index of D+17, Democratic nominee Patty Garcia holds a commanding position after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retired in November 2025 and cleared her path to an unopposed primary victory on March 17, 2026. Her endorsements from the retiring representative and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, combined with established party infrastructure, contrast with the Republican nominee Lupe Castillo’s limited fundraising and prior 40-point defeat in the district. Independent candidates have filed but show no viability in available polling. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals, though a major scandal involving Garcia or an unforeseen national midterm surge could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$46,392終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Illinois’s 4th congressional district, a solidly Democratic Chicago-area seat with a partisan voting index of D+17, Democratic nominee Patty Garcia holds a commanding position after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retired in November 2025 and cleared her path to an unopposed primary victory on March 17, 2026. Her endorsements from the retiring representative and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, combined with established party infrastructure, contrast with the Republican nominee Lupe Castillo’s limited fundraising and prior 40-point defeat in the district. Independent candidates have filed but show no viability in available polling. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals, though a major scandal involving Garcia or an unforeseen national midterm surge could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$46,392終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Illinois’s 4th congressional district, a solidly Democratic Chicago-area seat with a partisan voting index of D+17, Democratic nominee Patty Garcia holds a commanding position after incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García retired in November 2025 and cleared her path to an unopposed primary victory on March 17, 2026. Her endorsements from the retiring representative and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, combined with established party infrastructure, contrast with the Republican nominee Lupe Castillo’s limited fundraising and prior 40-point defeat in the district. Independent candidates have filed but show no viability in available polling. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals, though a major scandal involving Garcia or an unforeseen national midterm surge could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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