The Illinois 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and consistent electoral history, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty Garcia secured the nomination after the March primary as the endorsed successor, facing Republican Lupe Castillo in the November general election. Recent ballot rulings removed independent challengers, further consolidating the field. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the trader consensus. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns and fundraising data indicate limited pathways for Republican gains.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$56,312 Vol.
$56,312 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$56,312 Vol.
$56,312 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$40,670 Vol.
94%
共和党
$15,642 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and consistent electoral history, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty Garcia secured the nomination after the March primary as the endorsed successor, facing Republican Lupe Castillo in the November general election. Recent ballot rulings removed independent challengers, further consolidating the field. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the trader consensus. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns and fundraising data indicate limited pathways for Republican gains.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$56,312終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and consistent electoral history, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty Garcia secured the nomination after the March primary as the endorsed successor, facing Republican Lupe Castillo in the November general election. Recent ballot rulings removed independent challengers, further consolidating the field. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the trader consensus. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns and fundraising data indicate limited pathways for Republican gains.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$56,312終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and consistent electoral history, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty Garcia secured the nomination after the March primary as the endorsed successor, facing Republican Lupe Castillo in the November general election. Recent ballot rulings removed independent challengers, further consolidating the field. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with the trader consensus. A late scandal, health issue, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns and fundraising data indicate limited pathways for Republican gains.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問