Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced a June 15, 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire framework that explicitly schedules further talks on Iran’s nuclear program, enrichment levels, and highly enriched uranium stockpile. The agreement reaffirms Iran’s commitment not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons and includes language on freezing further enrichment or facility expansion pending a comprehensive deal. With the 60-day window extending into mid-August, July 31 falls squarely inside the active negotiation period, allowing traders to price in a realistic but not assured prospect of a specific enrichment cutoff by that date. Primary drivers of the 57.5 % “Yes” price are the official timeline, explicit freeze commitments, and ongoing diplomatic momentum, balanced against the fact that core enrichment terms remain subject to final agreement and could shift with late developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$741,225 Vol.
$741,225 Vol.
2026/07/31
$741,225 Vol.
$741,225 Vol.
2026/07/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced a June 15, 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire framework that explicitly schedules further talks on Iran’s nuclear program, enrichment levels, and highly enriched uranium stockpile. The agreement reaffirms Iran’s commitment not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons and includes language on freezing further enrichment or facility expansion pending a comprehensive deal. With the 60-day window extending into mid-August, July 31 falls squarely inside the active negotiation period, allowing traders to price in a realistic but not assured prospect of a specific enrichment cutoff by that date. Primary drivers of the 57.5 % “Yes” price are the official timeline, explicit freeze commitments, and ongoing diplomatic momentum, balanced against the fact that core enrichment terms remain subject to final agreement and could shift with late developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
音量
$741,225終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced a June 15, 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire framework that explicitly schedules further talks on Iran’s nuclear program, enrichment levels, and highly enriched uranium stockpile. The agreement reaffirms Iran’s commitment not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons and includes language on freezing further enrichment or facility expansion pending a comprehensive deal. With the 60-day window extending into mid-August, July 31 falls squarely inside the active negotiation period, allowing traders to price in a realistic but not assured prospect of a specific enrichment cutoff by that date. Primary drivers of the 57.5 % “Yes” price are the official timeline, explicit freeze commitments, and ongoing diplomatic momentum, balanced against the fact that core enrichment terms remain subject to final agreement and could shift with late developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$741,225終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced a June 15, 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire framework that explicitly schedules further talks on Iran’s nuclear program, enrichment levels, and highly enriched uranium stockpile. The agreement reaffirms Iran’s commitment not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons and includes language on freezing further enrichment or facility expansion pending a comprehensive deal. With the 60-day window extending into mid-August, July 31 falls squarely inside the active negotiation period, allowing traders to price in a realistic but not assured prospect of a specific enrichment cutoff by that date. Primary drivers of the 57.5 % “Yes” price are the official timeline, explicit freeze commitments, and ongoing diplomatic momentum, balanced against the fact that core enrichment terms remain subject to final agreement and could shift with late developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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