US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at a permanent ceasefire and security arrangements including Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, have produced repeated short-term truces since April 2026 but no binding agreement. Hezbollah rejected the latest Washington-brokered proposal in early June, insisting on full Israeli pullback and criticizing terms as insufficient, while cross-border strikes and violations have continued on both sides. These negotiations are tightly linked to the emerging US-Iran framework agreement, which calls for ending operations in Lebanon, yet Israel has signaled reluctance to withdraw forces immediately. A next round of talks is scheduled for late June, but persistent gaps over enforcement mechanisms, Litani River zone control, and Lebanese army deployment keep the prospects for a comprehensive, lasting deal by mid-2026 limited.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$9,356,942 Vol.
2026/06/30
June 30
3%
7月31日
11%
$9,356,942 Vol.
June 30
$3,557,082 Vol.
3%
7月31日
$845,444 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at a permanent ceasefire and security arrangements including Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, have produced repeated short-term truces since April 2026 but no binding agreement. Hezbollah rejected the latest Washington-brokered proposal in early June, insisting on full Israeli pullback and criticizing terms as insufficient, while cross-border strikes and violations have continued on both sides. These negotiations are tightly linked to the emerging US-Iran framework agreement, which calls for ending operations in Lebanon, yet Israel has signaled reluctance to withdraw forces immediately. A next round of talks is scheduled for late June, but persistent gaps over enforcement mechanisms, Litani River zone control, and Lebanese army deployment keep the prospects for a comprehensive, lasting deal by mid-2026 limited.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ET
音量
$9,356,942終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at a permanent ceasefire and security arrangements including Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, have produced repeated short-term truces since April 2026 but no binding agreement. Hezbollah rejected the latest Washington-brokered proposal in early June, insisting on full Israeli pullback and criticizing terms as insufficient, while cross-border strikes and violations have continued on both sides. These negotiations are tightly linked to the emerging US-Iran framework agreement, which calls for ending operations in Lebanon, yet Israel has signaled reluctance to withdraw forces immediately. A next round of talks is scheduled for late June, but persistent gaps over enforcement mechanisms, Litani River zone control, and Lebanese army deployment keep the prospects for a comprehensive, lasting deal by mid-2026 limited.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$9,356,942終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at a permanent ceasefire and security arrangements including Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, have produced repeated short-term truces since April 2026 but no binding agreement. Hezbollah rejected the latest Washington-brokered proposal in early June, insisting on full Israeli pullback and criticizing terms as insufficient, while cross-border strikes and violations have continued on both sides. These negotiations are tightly linked to the emerging US-Iran framework agreement, which calls for ending operations in Lebanon, yet Israel has signaled reluctance to withdraw forces immediately. A next round of talks is scheduled for late June, but persistent gaps over enforcement mechanisms, Litani River zone control, and Lebanese army deployment keep the prospects for a comprehensive, lasting deal by mid-2026 limited.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問