Official forecasts from monitoring agencies indicate a minimum temperature near 22–23°C for Beijing on August 21, positioning 24°C and 23°C as the leading market outcomes due to typical late-summer nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms. These conditions reflect seasonal norms where overnight lows average 21–22°C amid high humidity and urban heat retention, with model consensus showing limited deviation absent a stronger cold advection event. Recent observations confirm stable atmospheric patterns without significant frontal passages or anomalous radiative cooling that would push readings below 21°C or above 25°C. Traders appear to weight forecast uncertainties around precipitation timing and local microclimates, which can alter the exact minimum by 1–2°C before resolution.