Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Met Office and regional guidance points to a cooler, rain-soaked pattern over Tokyo on September 4, driven by northeasterly flow and cloud cover suppressing nighttime radiative cooling while delivering widespread precipitation. This setup favors minimum temperatures near 22–23°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities at those levels. Seasonal baselines for early September place typical lows around 20–22°C, but the active frontal influence and high humidity introduce modest upside risk for slightly warmer readings if breaks in cloud occur. Traders are weighting near-term model runs showing consistent overnight stabilization in the low-20s range, with limited volatility expected before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月4日の東京の最低気温は？
9月4日の東京の最低気温は？
23℃ 41%
22℃ 29%
24℃ 15%
21°C 6%
新規
新規
2026/09/04
18°C以下
1%
19℃
1%
20℃
5%
21°C
6%
22℃
29%
23℃
41%
24℃
15%
25℃
6%
26℃
1%
27℃
<1%
28℃以上
<1%
23℃ 41%
22℃ 29%
24℃ 15%
21°C 6%
新規
新規
2026/09/04
18°C以下
$0 Vol.
1%
19℃
$0 Vol.
1%
20℃
$65 Vol.
5%
21°C
$269 Vol.
6%
22℃
$985 Vol.
29%
23℃
$140 Vol.
41%
24℃
$279 Vol.
15%
25℃
$0 Vol.
6%
26℃
$0 Vol.
1%
27℃
$0 Vol.
<1%
28℃以上
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Met Office and regional guidance points to a cooler, rain-soaked pattern over Tokyo on September 4, driven by northeasterly flow and cloud cover suppressing nighttime radiative cooling while delivering widespread precipitation. This setup favors minimum temperatures near 22–23°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities at those levels. Seasonal baselines for early September place typical lows around 20–22°C, but the active frontal influence and high humidity introduce modest upside risk for slightly warmer readings if breaks in cloud occur. Traders are weighting near-term model runs showing consistent overnight stabilization in the low-20s range, with limited volatility expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$1,838終了日
2026/09/04マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Met Office and regional guidance points to a cooler, rain-soaked pattern over Tokyo on September 4, driven by northeasterly flow and cloud cover suppressing nighttime radiative cooling while delivering widespread precipitation. This setup favors minimum temperatures near 22–23°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities at those levels. Seasonal baselines for early September place typical lows around 20–22°C, but the active frontal influence and high humidity introduce modest upside risk for slightly warmer readings if breaks in cloud occur. Traders are weighting near-term model runs showing consistent overnight stabilization in the low-20s range, with limited volatility expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,838終了日
2026/09/04マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRecent forecast model consensus from sources including the Met Office and regional guidance points to a cooler, rain-soaked pattern over Tokyo on September 4, driven by northeasterly flow and cloud cover suppressing nighttime radiative cooling while delivering widespread precipitation. This setup favors minimum temperatures near 22–23°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities at those levels. Seasonal baselines for early September place typical lows around 20–22°C, but the active frontal influence and high humidity introduce modest upside risk for slightly warmer readings if breaks in cloud occur. Traders are weighting near-term model runs showing consistent overnight stabilization in the low-20s range, with limited volatility expected before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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