French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly affirmed he will complete his second term through May 2027, the constitutional limit, and exit politics afterward. Persistent calls for early resignation or snap presidential elections peaked during the 2025 government crises involving multiple prime ministerial resignations and a fragmented National Assembly, yet Macron rejected these demands and maintained office. Impeachment proceedings under Article 68 remain procedurally demanding and have not advanced successfully. As of mid-2026, Macron continues active diplomacy, including at the G7 summit, with no verified developments indicating an imminent departure. Trader pricing reflects this stability, assigning negligible implied probability to an exit before the market's June 30, 2026 resolution amid France's ongoing legislative gridlock and opposition pressure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日French President Macron meets Albanian Prime Minister at Elysee Palace
July 31, 2026 drops to 14%13%
On June 26, 2026, Macron held official meetings at the Elysee Palace, demonstrating his active role as president and no indication of stepping down, which contributed to the sharp decline in market probability of his departure by July 31, 2026.
French forces intercept Russian shadow fleet oil tanker, Macron announces
July 31, 2026 dips to 1%3%
Macron announced that French naval forces intercepted a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker off the coast of Sicily, demonstrating active leadership in international security matters. This event underscored Macron's ongoing role as head of state, contributing to market confidence that he remains in office.
Russia blames Macron for worsening France-Russia relations amid hybrid war
July 31, 2026 drops to 4%10%
On June 26, 2026, Russia's Permanent Representative to the OSCE publicly blamed Macron for the impasse in relations between France and Russia, highlighting geopolitical tensions but not indicating any change in Macron's presidency. This statement coincided with a market price drop for Macron leaving office, reflecting no credible threat to his position.
Macron defends government's climate adaptation efforts amid heatwave
July 31, 2026 drops to 4%10%
Amid a severe heatwave affecting much of France, Macron publicly defended the government's work on climate adaptation, emphasizing the unprecedented nature of the crisis. His active engagement in crisis management reinforced perceptions of his continued leadership and stability.
France and Germany conclude KNDS strategic and governance agreement
A strategic agreement between France and Germany on KNDS (a major defense industry partnership) was announced, reinforcing bilateral cooperation and potentially signaling stability in Macron's administration.
France's government faces crises amid heatwave and public scrutiny
July 31, 2026 plunges to 27%17%
On June 23, 2026, France's government, led by President Macron, was under intense scrutiny due to a severe heatwave and a high-profile criminal case, raising questions about his administration's stability but not indicating any imminent departure from office. This context likely contributed to market uncertainty but did not support a price increase for Macron leaving office by July 31, 2026.
Macron defends his record amid political and social crises
July 31, 2026 drops to 14%13%
In interviews and public statements, Macron vigorously defended his presidency against criticism over economic and social issues, including rising unemployment and debt. This showed his intent to remain in office and manage ongoing crises, reducing market expectations of an early departure.
Reports of Macron considering new dissolution to pressure political rivals
July 31, 2026 drops to 27%10%
Media reports surfaced that Macron was testing the idea of a new dissolution of the National Assembly to complicate the political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election. This speculation increased political uncertainty but was met with skepticism and later denials, causing market volatility in the July 31, 2026 outcome.
Elysée denies rumors of Macron dissolving National Assembly before 2027 election
July 31, 2026 plunges to 0%44%
On June 20, 2026, the French presidency officially denied rumors that Emmanuel Macron planned to dissolve the National Assembly before the 2027 presidential election, clarifying that no such plan had ever been considered. This denial likely contributed to the market's sharp drop in probability for Macron leaving office before July 31, 2026, as it removed speculation about a political crisis leading to early departure.
Macron's entourage denies plans for early dissolution of National Assembly
July 31, 2026 drops to 37%7%
Following rumors and media reports about a possible early dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron before the 2027 presidential election, his close associates publicly denied any such plans, stating it was never under consideration. This denial likely reassured markets about political stability, contributing to a decline in the probability of Macron leaving office early for the July 31, 2026 outcome.
Macron: France, Germany, UK key to lifting UN nuclear sanctions on Iran
During a live interview on France 2, Macron stated that France, Germany, and the UK are essential for lifting international sanctions on Iran, highlighting his diplomatic leadership role in nuclear negotiations.
Macron's resignation-tinged New Year's address highlights scheduled departure in 2027
Macron's address for the first time mentioned his impending departure by reminding the public he cannot run in 2027, but contained no announcement of early resignation. This reinforced market confidence that he would not leave office prematurely, maintaining low prices for the 'Yes' outcome.
Macron vows to serve until last second of presidency in New Year’s address
On December 31, 2025, Macron publicly committed to completing his term and ensuring a calm 2027 election despite record-low approval ratings and political deadlock. This strongly reassured the market, contributing to the decline in the probability of his early departure.
Macron vows to serve full term in New Year’s address
June 30, 2026 drops to 5%6%
In his New Year’s speech, Macron pledged to govern through 2026 and ensure a calm presidential election in 2027, reinforcing market confidence that he would not leave office early and causing a sharp drop in the probability of his departure before mid-2026.
Macron rejects resignation calls in New Year's Eve address
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%3%
In his traditional address, President Macron explicitly ruled out resigning early, promising to remain in office and work 'until the last second' of his mandate in 2027.
Macron delivers resignation-tinged New Year's address, signals acceptance of term end
June 30, 2026 dips to 5%3%
In his New Year's address, Macron for the first time alluded to his impending departure and reiterated he would not run in 2027, signaling acceptance of his scheduled exit and diminishing speculation about an early departure. This contributed to the market's decline in the probability of Macron leaving office before mid-2026.
French Parliament Passes Emergency Stopgap Bill to Avert Government Shutdown
With lawmakers unable to agree on a full 2026 budget, parliament unanimously passed a special rollover law to keep public services running, temporarily easing immediate pressure on the executive.
Macron announces new aircraft carrier project during UAE visit
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%1%
Macron’s announcement of a major defense project signaled ongoing active leadership and long-term planning, further diminishing market speculation about his early exit from office.
Macron announces decision to build new aircraft carrier during UAE visit
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%1%
On December 21, 2025, Macron officially approved the construction of a new aircraft carrier, underscoring his active role in defense and international affairs. This event supported market confidence in his continued presidency through 2025.
False controversy accuses Macron of ceding overseas territories
On December 18, 2025, fabricated claims about Macron giving up overseas territories sparked outrage but were officially denied, showing no real threat to his presidency. This episode likely had minimal impact on market expectations of his tenure.
Macron demands legislation change over false information online
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%1%
On November 28, 2025, Macron called for new laws to combat misinformation on social media, reflecting his active governance and concern over political stability. This reinforced market expectations that he remained in office and engaged in policy initiatives.
Édouard Philippe Reaffirms Call for Macron's Orderly Early Departure
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe reiterated his controversial proposal for Macron to step down early to resolve France's political deadlock, though he clarified he was not seeking a forced impeachment.
Macron unveils new French space strategy amid security concerns
On November 12, 2025, Macron announced a comprehensive space strategy to address the militarization of space, signaling his active engagement in national security and defense. This demonstrated his ongoing leadership role, supporting market confidence in his continuation as president.
Macron unveils new space strategy amid government instability
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%3%
Despite ongoing government instability, Macron presented a comprehensive space strategy, demonstrating continued active governance and commitment to long-term national projects, reducing market fears of early departure.
Macron's approval rating hits historic low of 11%
June 30, 2026 dips to 11%3%
Polls revealed Macron as the least popular French president in decades, reflecting widespread public discontent amid political and economic turmoil, further undermining confidence in his presidency and contributing to market price declines.
Macron's approval rating drops to historic low of 11%
June 30, 2026 rises to 15%1%
Polls showed Macron's approval rating at a record low, tying the lowest in 50 years, reflecting deep public dissatisfaction but no immediate indication of resignation. This reinforced market expectations that Macron would remain in office despite unpopularity, keeping prices low around 15%.
Three French governments collapse in under a year, Macron's unpopularity peaks
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%1%
The Guardian reported on the unprecedented political instability and Macron's record unpopularity, highlighting the deepening crisis overshadowing his presidency. This reinforced market sentiment that Macron would not leave office prematurely.
French PM Sébastien Lecornu survives two no-confidence votes
June 30, 2026 jumps to 19%7%
Lecornu's survival of no-confidence votes averted immediate government collapse, easing political crisis temporarily and supporting Macron's hold on power. Market prices showed minor recovery and stabilization after this event.
Macron supports suspension of pension reform to maintain political stability
June 30, 2026 rises to 23%3%
Amid ongoing political tensions and motions of censure, Macron endorsed suspending the controversial pension reform to stabilize the government, signaling attempts to manage the crisis without stepping down, which influenced market sentiment.
Macron shelved major pension reform amid political crisis
June 30, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Macron delayed a key economic reform to prevent government collapse, signaling political weakness and diminishing chances of early departure, which contributed to a further price decline.
Macron urges political stability amid government turmoil
June 30, 2026 rises to 22%1%
Macron publicly called for calm and stability amid political crisis and government resignations, signaling his intent to maintain office despite challenges. This helped stabilize market expectations that he would not leave office prematurely.
Macron rejects calls to resign amid government crisis
June 30, 2026 rises to 14%2%
Macron publicly refused to resign despite mounting opposition and political instability, signaling his intent to complete his term. This helped stabilize the market price around 12-15%.
Macron refuses to resign amid no-confidence votes
June 30, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Despite mounting no-confidence votes and political chaos, Macron publicly declared he would continue to serve, reinforcing market sentiment that he would not leave office soon, contributing to a price decline.
Emmanuel Macron reconfirms Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister amid political crisis
June 30, 2026 jumps to 22%9%
Despite Lecornu's recent resignation and political opposition, Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, a move that intensified political tensions and dissatisfaction among opposition parties, further impacting market sentiment.
Macron Re-appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister in Shock Move
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%6%
In a surprise move to resolve the political stalemate, President Macron re-appointed Lecornu as Prime Minister just four days after his resignation, tasking him with forming a government and passing a budget.
Emmanuel Macron reappoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister
June 30, 2026 rises to 22%1%
Macron reappointed Lecornu to Matignon four days after his resignation, giving him a mandate to resolve the political impasse and pass the budget, which helped calm immediate speculation about a presidential departure.
Macron faces critical choice amid political crisis with multiple options for Prime Minister
June 30, 2026 rises to 14%1%
As Macron prepared to name a new Prime Minister following Lecornu's resignation, speculation grew about possible candidates including reappointing Lecornu or choosing a left-wing figure, highlighting the political deadlock and uncertainty about Macron's future.
Macron to appoint new Prime Minister instead of calling elections
June 30, 2026 rises to 23%4%
Macron announced he would appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours rather than call snap elections, signaling his intent to maintain power despite political pressure. This decision caused a moderate price increase reflecting market uncertainty.
Macron reappoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister after resignation
June 30, 2026 rises to 14%2%
In a surprising move, Macron reappointed Lecornu as Prime Minister days after his resignation, aiming to resolve the political deadlock and push through a budget. This move temporarily stabilized the situation but underscored the ongoing political crisis and Macron's limited maneuvering room.
French parliament rejects impeachment bid against Macron amid political turmoil
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%3%
The National Assembly dismissed an impeachment attempt against Macron, providing him temporary political relief but underscoring ongoing instability and opposition pressure.
Former PM Edouard Philippe calls for Macron's resignation
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Edouard Philippe publicly suggested Macron should resign and hold early elections to resolve the political deadlock, increasing market concerns about Macron's tenure. This contributed to continued low market prices around 12-14%.
French Parliament rejects motion to impeach President Macron
A motion to impeach Macron introduced by left-wing parties was rejected by the National Assembly Bureau, signaling that despite political turmoil, Macron was unlikely to be removed early by parliamentary means. This reduced market expectations of an early exit.
Calls grow for Macron to resign or call snap elections amid political chaos
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%3%
Former prime minister Edouard Philippe and other political figures publicly urged Macron to resign or hold new elections to resolve the crisis, increasing political pressure but Macron refused. This sustained market uncertainty and downward price pressure.
Former PM Édouard Philippe urges Macron to resign and call early presidential elections
June 30, 2026 rises to 16%3%
Philippe, Macron's first prime minister and a former ally, publicly called for Macron to step down and hold early elections, signaling fractures within Macron's camp and increasing political pressure on the president.
Former PM Edouard Philippe calls for Macron to resign and early presidential elections
June 30, 2026 plunges to 13%37%
Edouard Philippe publicly urged President Macron to resign in an orderly manner and for snap presidential elections to be held in early 2026, breaking a political taboo and signaling serious fractures within Macron's own camp. This increased market doubts about Macron's ability to complete his term, contributing to a price drop.
Édouard Philippe Calls for Macron's Orderly Resignation to End Deadlock
June 30, 2026 jumps to 27%6%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe broke a political taboo by publicly calling for President Macron to step down in an orderly manner after the adoption of the budget, bringing the prospect of an early presidential election into mainstream discussion.
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe calls for Macron's early resignation
June 30, 2026 jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe broke ranks by publicly calling on Emmanuel Macron to announce a planned resignation and organize an early presidential election after the adoption of the 2026 budget.
Fifth French Prime Minister resigns amid political crisis
June 30, 2026 jumps to 19%6%
Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned after only 14 hours in office, highlighting the deepening political instability and increasing calls for Macron to resign or call snap elections. This event caused a slight price increase as uncertainty about Macron's tenure grew.
Sébastien Lecornu resigns as Prime Minister hours after forming government
June 30, 2026 plunges to 14%36%
Sébastien Lecornu presented his government's resignation to President Macron just hours after its composition was announced, plunging France into a deep institutional crisis and triggering immediate opposition demands for Macron's resignation.
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigns amid political crisis
June 30, 2026 plunges to 13%37%
Lecornu resigned less than a month after appointment, deepening France's political deadlock and increasing pressure on Macron. This event caused market uncertainty but did not immediately imply Macron's departure, leading to a sharp price drop for June 30, 2026 outcome from 50% to 13%.
Macron faces political deadlock and low approval amid government instability
June 30, 2026 plunges to 14%36%
By late September 2025, Macron's government was struggling with political deadlock and low approval ratings, causing initial market uncertainty about his tenure. However, no concrete signs of early departure emerged, leading to fluctuating but generally declining market confidence in his exit before mid-2026.
French farmers call nationwide protest adding pressure on Macron's government
On September 25, 2025, France's largest farming union FNSEA called for a nationwide day of action, increasing pressure on Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and the Macron administration amid ongoing political and social unrest. This event sustained the low market price around 13%, reflecting persistent doubts about Macron's ability to maintain power.
Macron pressures Iran to revive nuclear talks amid ongoing crises
On September 24-25, Macron engaged in talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN, signaling active foreign policy engagement despite domestic turmoil. This demonstrated Macron's continued role as president, reducing immediate expectations of his departure.
Macron calls Trump after being stuck behind motorcade at U.N.
While attending the U.N. General Assembly, Macron was briefly delayed by the U.S. president's motorcade and called Trump to negotiate passage. This incident symbolized Macron's diplomatic efforts amid domestic turmoil but had limited impact on his political standing.
Macron addresses political crisis in televised interview
In a major interview, Macron discussed ongoing political challenges and reforms but did not indicate any intention to resign, reinforcing market expectations of his continued presidency.
Macron reaffirms presidency amid low approval ratings
June 30, 2026 plunges to 13%37%
In a televised interview, Macron addressed the political crisis but maintained his position, despite his approval rating falling to 14%. This reinforced market doubts about an imminent departure, contributing to a sharp price drop from 50% to 13%.
Macron addresses international issues amid domestic challenges in CBS interview
In a televised interview, Macron discussed international conflicts and his government's stance, attempting to project leadership despite domestic unrest. While this showed Macron's active engagement, it did not alleviate market concerns about his political stability at home.
Macron faces criticism over political instability in France
In a televised interview, Macron addressed ongoing crises but faced criticism for his handling of domestic issues. The political deadlock and public dissatisfaction persisted, maintaining downward pressure on market confidence in his continued presidency.
Macron addresses international issues but offers no indication of stepping down
In a televised interview, President Macron discussed foreign policy and ongoing conflicts but gave no signs of political instability or plans to leave office, reinforcing market confidence in his continued presidency.
Emmanuel Macron addresses political crisis in televised interview
On September 21, 2025, President Macron gave a televised interview discussing the ongoing political challenges and unrest in France. While he sought to reassure the public and international observers, the interview underscored the fragile state of his presidency amid widespread dissatisfaction.
Macron defends policies in televised interview amid crisis
President Macron gave a televised interview on September 21, 2025, addressing the political crisis and defending his government's policies. His public stance and refusal to resign reassured some market participants, contributing to the stabilization of the market price around 13%.
Nationwide strikes and protests call for Macron's resignation
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%3%
On September 18, massive strikes and protests swept across France, with workers and students blaming Macron for economic and social deterioration. The unrest included clashes with police and was part of a broader movement opposing Macron's austerity measures, significantly undermining confidence in his presidency.
Nationwide strikes and protests challenge Macron's government
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%3%
Widespread strikes and protests against government budget cuts and social policies disrupted France, with clashes between police and protesters. This heightened political instability but did not lead to any immediate change in Macron's presidency, contributing to market reassessment of his tenure.
Nationwide general strike and protests challenge Macron's government
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%2%
On September 18, 2025, a large general strike involving hundreds of thousands of participants took place across France, protesting budget cuts and welfare freezes under Macron's administration. The strike intensified political tensions but did not lead to Macron's immediate departure, causing market confidence in his staying power to increase slightly.
Massive nationwide strikes and protests erupt against Macron's austerity policies
June 30, 2026 dips to 13%2%
Unions called a general strike with over 500,000 demonstrators protesting budget cuts and Macron's government, intensifying political crisis and public anger but Macron remained in office, reinforcing market view of continued tenure.
Nationwide strikes and protests erupt against Macron's austerity budget
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%3%
On September 18, 2025, hundreds of thousands of workers and students participated in nationwide strikes and protests against President Macron's austerity budget, causing widespread disruption and violent clashes with police. This intensified political crisis further eroded confidence in Macron's presidency, pushing market prices down to 12-13%.
Macron appoints Sébastien Lecornu as third Prime Minister in a year amid crisis
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%1%
Following Bayrou's ousting, Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu as the third prime minister within a year, but this did not ease political tensions. The appointment occurred amid ongoing budget disputes and parliamentary deadlock, maintaining uncertainty about Macron's ability to govern effectively.
Appointment of third Prime Minister in a year fails to calm political tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%1%
The appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister did not ease national tensions; unions called a general strike for September 18, increasing political uncertainty and public dissatisfaction with Macron's leadership.
Emmanuel Macron appoints Sébastien Lecornu as third prime minister in a year amid political turmoil
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%1%
Following the resignation of François Bayrou, President Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister on September 15, 2025. This appointment was seen as an attempt to stabilize the government but failed to calm political tensions, reflecting ongoing instability and contributing to market uncertainty.
Macron appoints third Prime Minister in a year amid rising political crisis
June 30, 2026 plunges to 17%33%
Emmanuel Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu as his third Prime Minister within a year, a move that failed to calm national tensions and highlighted the deepening political crisis. This appointment underscored the instability of Macron's government and increased market concerns about his presidency's durability.
French PM scraps proposal to cut two public holidays amid political backlash
June 30, 2026 plunges to 17%33%
The French Prime Minister withdrew a controversial proposal to cut public holidays following strong opposition from political leaders across the spectrum, who blamed President Macron for the political instability. This event signaled challenges to Macron's agenda and contributed to market doubts about his political stability.
British analyst calls for Macron's resignation amid France's crisis
June 30, 2026 plunges to 17%33%
British political scientist Alexander Merkuris publicly stated that Emmanuel Macron is the main cause of France's political crisis and must resign to resolve the republic's problems, reflecting growing international recognition of Macron's precarious position and influencing market sentiment.
Calls grow for Macron's resignation amid political and economic crisis
June 30, 2026 plunges to 17%33%
Public and political opposition intensified with polls showing 64% support for Macron's resignation and petitions demanding his departure, reflecting deep dissatisfaction but no immediate exit.
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