Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in New Mexico’s 2026 Senate race because the state has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002 and consistently supports Democratic candidates by wide margins in statewide contests. Recent polling shows Luján ahead of his sole Democratic primary challenger by 60 points, while Republicans field only a write-in candidate with minimal organization ahead of the June 2 primaries. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 96 percent because structural factors such as the state’s partisan registration edge, fundraising advantage for the incumbent, and absence of competitive Republican opposition have historically produced double-digit general-election margins. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal, or health event affecting Luján before November, none of which current reporting indicates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,009 Vol.
$15,009 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$15,009 Vol.
$15,009 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,093 Vol.
96%
共和党
$6,916 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in New Mexico’s 2026 Senate race because the state has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002 and consistently supports Democratic candidates by wide margins in statewide contests. Recent polling shows Luján ahead of his sole Democratic primary challenger by 60 points, while Republicans field only a write-in candidate with minimal organization ahead of the June 2 primaries. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 96 percent because structural factors such as the state’s partisan registration edge, fundraising advantage for the incumbent, and absence of competitive Republican opposition have historically produced double-digit general-election margins. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal, or health event affecting Luján before November, none of which current reporting indicates.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$15,009終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in New Mexico’s 2026 Senate race because the state has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002 and consistently supports Democratic candidates by wide margins in statewide contests. Recent polling shows Luján ahead of his sole Democratic primary challenger by 60 points, while Republicans field only a write-in candidate with minimal organization ahead of the June 2 primaries. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 96 percent because structural factors such as the state’s partisan registration edge, fundraising advantage for the incumbent, and absence of competitive Republican opposition have historically produced double-digit general-election margins. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal, or health event affecting Luján before November, none of which current reporting indicates.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$15,009終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in New Mexico’s 2026 Senate race because the state has not elected a Republican to the chamber since 2002 and consistently supports Democratic candidates by wide margins in statewide contests. Recent polling shows Luján ahead of his sole Democratic primary challenger by 60 points, while Republicans field only a write-in candidate with minimal organization ahead of the June 2 primaries. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 96 percent because structural factors such as the state’s partisan registration edge, fundraising advantage for the incumbent, and absence of competitive Republican opposition have historically produced double-digit general-election margins. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen primary upset, major scandal, or health event affecting Luján before November, none of which current reporting indicates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問