Trader sentiment on Google's next Gemini model debuting in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena hinges on the lab's established pattern of stealth-testing previews, as seen with a new Gemini Flash variant spotted on the leaderboard in early May 2026, achieving strong early Elo scores amid hype for its efficiency gains. This follows Gemini 3's November 2025 launch topping LMArena at 1501 Elo, though current leaderboards show Claude Opus 4.7 dominant at around 1503, with Gemini 3.1 Pro ranking second in creative writing and overall balance. Leaks of agentic upgrades like Gemini Omni and 3.1 Pro previews fuel optimism, but resolution depends on official criteria; watch Android Show integrations today and Google I/O on May 19 for announcements that could confirm or shift positioning in the fierce AI model race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$172,669 Vol.
1490以上
1%
1480+
1%
1500+
1%
1510以上
<1%
1520+
<1%
$172,669 Vol.
1490以上
$36,431 Vol.
1%
1480+
$87,930 Vol.
1%
1500+
$14,087 Vol.
1%
1510以上
$4,046 Vol.
<1%
1520+
$6,983 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".Trader sentiment on Google's next Gemini model debuting in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena hinges on the lab's established pattern of stealth-testing previews, as seen with a new Gemini Flash variant spotted on the leaderboard in early May 2026, achieving strong early Elo scores amid hype for its efficiency gains. This follows Gemini 3's November 2025 launch topping LMArena at 1501 Elo, though current leaderboards show Claude Opus 4.7 dominant at around 1503, with Gemini 3.1 Pro ranking second in creative writing and overall balance. Leaks of agentic upgrades like Gemini Omni and 3.1 Pro previews fuel optimism, but resolution depends on official criteria; watch Android Show integrations today and Google I/O on May 19 for announcements that could confirm or shift positioning in the fierce AI model race.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 3:25 PM ET
音量
$172,669マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".Trader sentiment on Google's next Gemini model debuting in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena hinges on the lab's established pattern of stealth-testing previews, as seen with a new Gemini Flash variant spotted on the leaderboard in early May 2026, achieving strong early Elo scores amid hype for its efficiency gains. This follows Gemini 3's November 2025 launch topping LMArena at 1501 Elo, though current leaderboards show Claude Opus 4.7 dominant at around 1503, with Gemini 3.1 Pro ranking second in creative writing and overall balance. Leaks of agentic upgrades like Gemini Omni and 3.1 Pro previews fuel optimism, but resolution depends on official criteria; watch Android Show integrations today and Google I/O on May 19 for announcements that could confirm or shift positioning in the fierce AI model race.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Gemini model released by Google has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If multiple models are released on the same calendar date or if multiple variants of the qualifying model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Pro,” or “Flash”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
音量
$172,669マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Google's next Gemini model debuting in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena hinges on the lab's established pattern of stealth-testing previews, as seen with a new Gemini Flash variant spotted on the leaderboard in early May 2026, achieving strong early Elo scores amid hype for its efficiency gains. This follows Gemini 3's November 2025 launch topping LMArena at 1501 Elo, though current leaderboards show Claude Opus 4.7 dominant at around 1503, with Gemini 3.1 Pro ranking second in creative writing and overall balance. Leaks of agentic upgrades like Gemini Omni and 3.1 Pro previews fuel optimism, but resolution depends on official criteria; watch Android Show integrations today and Google I/O on May 19 for announcements that could confirm or shift positioning in the fierce AI model race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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