Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in New York’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting his prior narrow victory over the same Republican challenger in 2024 and consistent support from forecasters rating the seat Lean or Likely Democratic. Suozzi secured his party’s nomination with nearly 80 percent in the June primary and benefits from incumbency in a mixed suburban district that includes parts of Nassau and Suffolk counties plus Queens. Republican Michael LiPetri, a former state assemblyman, won his primary decisively and receives backing from national GOP groups, including roughly $8 million in recent attack advertising from a Trump-aligned super PAC. Despite these efforts and the district’s narrow Republican tilt in the 2024 presidential race, models project Suozzi ahead by double digits, with trader consensus pricing his reelection odds near 87 percent.