Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) drives Republican trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability in Virginia's 1st Congressional District, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, dominant fundraising ($3.8 million cash on hand as of March), and the district's historical Republican lean under the prior map. A state Supreme Court ruling last week rejected voter-approved mid-decade redistricting changes from April 21 that could have favored Democrats—potentially flipping four seats statewide—reinstating the incumbent-friendly boundaries and tempering Democratic odds at 25.5%. A crowded Democratic primary field, led by Shannon Taylor's $1.3 million raised, adds uncertainty ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and November general election, with no public polls yet available.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$17,991 Vol.
$17,991 Vol.
2026/11/04
共和党
47%
民主党
29%
$17,991 Vol.
$17,991 Vol.
2026/11/04
共和党
$1,706 Vol.
47%
民主党
$16,285 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) drives Republican trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability in Virginia's 1st Congressional District, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, dominant fundraising ($3.8 million cash on hand as of March), and the district's historical Republican lean under the prior map. A state Supreme Court ruling last week rejected voter-approved mid-decade redistricting changes from April 21 that could have favored Democrats—potentially flipping four seats statewide—reinstating the incumbent-friendly boundaries and tempering Democratic odds at 25.5%. A crowded Democratic primary field, led by Shannon Taylor's $1.3 million raised, adds uncertainty ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and November general election, with no public polls yet available.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
音量
$17,991終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) drives Republican trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability in Virginia's 1st Congressional District, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, dominant fundraising ($3.8 million cash on hand as of March), and the district's historical Republican lean under the prior map. A state Supreme Court ruling last week rejected voter-approved mid-decade redistricting changes from April 21 that could have favored Democrats—potentially flipping four seats statewide—reinstating the incumbent-friendly boundaries and tempering Democratic odds at 25.5%. A crowded Democratic primary field, led by Shannon Taylor's $1.3 million raised, adds uncertainty ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and November general election, with no public polls yet available.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$17,991終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman (R) drives Republican trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability in Virginia's 1st Congressional District, bolstered by his unopposed August 4 primary, dominant fundraising ($3.8 million cash on hand as of March), and the district's historical Republican lean under the prior map. A state Supreme Court ruling last week rejected voter-approved mid-decade redistricting changes from April 21 that could have favored Democrats—potentially flipping four seats statewide—reinstating the incumbent-friendly boundaries and tempering Democratic odds at 25.5%. A crowded Democratic primary field, led by Shannon Taylor's $1.3 million raised, adds uncertainty ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and November general election, with no public polls yet available.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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