The NY-17 race features Republican incumbent Mike Lawler seeking a third term against Democratic nominee Cait Conley in a Lower Hudson Valley swing district that Kamala Harris carried narrowly in 2024. Lawler won reelection in 2024 by roughly 6 points after narrower victories in prior cycles, but the seat ranks among the most competitive in the 2026 midterms, where the out-of-power party historically gains ground. Conley, an Army veteran with national security experience, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary and has emphasized cost-of-living issues. Recent polling shows a tight contest, with some surveys giving Lawler a slim edge and others favoring Conley. Trader consensus at 66% for Democrats versus 33% for Republicans reflects the district's partisan balance, midterm dynamics, and Conley's general-election positioning against an incumbent in a seat rated toss-up or lean Republican by most forecasters. Upcoming fall campaigning and any shifts in national conditions could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
66%
共和党
33%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$4,001 Vol.
66%
共和党
$5,591 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-17 race features Republican incumbent Mike Lawler seeking a third term against Democratic nominee Cait Conley in a Lower Hudson Valley swing district that Kamala Harris carried narrowly in 2024. Lawler won reelection in 2024 by roughly 6 points after narrower victories in prior cycles, but the seat ranks among the most competitive in the 2026 midterms, where the out-of-power party historically gains ground. Conley, an Army veteran with national security experience, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary and has emphasized cost-of-living issues. Recent polling shows a tight contest, with some surveys giving Lawler a slim edge and others favoring Conley. Trader consensus at 66% for Democrats versus 33% for Republicans reflects the district's partisan balance, midterm dynamics, and Conley's general-election positioning against an incumbent in a seat rated toss-up or lean Republican by most forecasters. Upcoming fall campaigning and any shifts in national conditions could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$9,592終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-17 race features Republican incumbent Mike Lawler seeking a third term against Democratic nominee Cait Conley in a Lower Hudson Valley swing district that Kamala Harris carried narrowly in 2024. Lawler won reelection in 2024 by roughly 6 points after narrower victories in prior cycles, but the seat ranks among the most competitive in the 2026 midterms, where the out-of-power party historically gains ground. Conley, an Army veteran with national security experience, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary and has emphasized cost-of-living issues. Recent polling shows a tight contest, with some surveys giving Lawler a slim edge and others favoring Conley. Trader consensus at 66% for Democrats versus 33% for Republicans reflects the district's partisan balance, midterm dynamics, and Conley's general-election positioning against an incumbent in a seat rated toss-up or lean Republican by most forecasters. Upcoming fall campaigning and any shifts in national conditions could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,592終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-17 race features Republican incumbent Mike Lawler seeking a third term against Democratic nominee Cait Conley in a Lower Hudson Valley swing district that Kamala Harris carried narrowly in 2024. Lawler won reelection in 2024 by roughly 6 points after narrower victories in prior cycles, but the seat ranks among the most competitive in the 2026 midterms, where the out-of-power party historically gains ground. Conley, an Army veteran with national security experience, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary and has emphasized cost-of-living issues. Recent polling shows a tight contest, with some surveys giving Lawler a slim edge and others favoring Conley. Trader consensus at 66% for Democrats versus 33% for Republicans reflects the district's partisan balance, midterm dynamics, and Conley's general-election positioning against an incumbent in a seat rated toss-up or lean Republican by most forecasters. Upcoming fall campaigning and any shifts in national conditions could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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