The Democratic Party holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the NY-16 House election market due to the district’s D+18 partisan voter index, its concentration of Democratic voters across southern Westchester County and parts of the Bronx, and incumbent George Latimer’s automatic advancement through an uncontested June 2026 primary. Race raters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Latimer’s 71.5% margin in 2024 and the absence of meaningful Republican primary activity or recent polling shifts. Joseph Cinquemani’s nomination faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic turnout and fundraising have historically dominated. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, incumbent health events, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s underlying partisan math.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$41,135 Vol.
$41,135 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
96%
共和党
2%
$41,135 Vol.
$41,135 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$30,678 Vol.
96%
共和党
$10,457 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the NY-16 House election market due to the district’s D+18 partisan voter index, its concentration of Democratic voters across southern Westchester County and parts of the Bronx, and incumbent George Latimer’s automatic advancement through an uncontested June 2026 primary. Race raters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Latimer’s 71.5% margin in 2024 and the absence of meaningful Republican primary activity or recent polling shifts. Joseph Cinquemani’s nomination faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic turnout and fundraising have historically dominated. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, incumbent health events, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s underlying partisan math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$41,135終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the NY-16 House election market due to the district’s D+18 partisan voter index, its concentration of Democratic voters across southern Westchester County and parts of the Bronx, and incumbent George Latimer’s automatic advancement through an uncontested June 2026 primary. Race raters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Latimer’s 71.5% margin in 2024 and the absence of meaningful Republican primary activity or recent polling shifts. Joseph Cinquemani’s nomination faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic turnout and fundraising have historically dominated. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, incumbent health events, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s underlying partisan math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$41,135終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 95.5% implied probability in the NY-16 House election market due to the district’s D+18 partisan voter index, its concentration of Democratic voters across southern Westchester County and parts of the Bronx, and incumbent George Latimer’s automatic advancement through an uncontested June 2026 primary. Race raters classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with Latimer’s 71.5% margin in 2024 and the absence of meaningful Republican primary activity or recent polling shifts. Joseph Cinquemani’s nomination faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic turnout and fundraising have historically dominated. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, incumbent health events, or an unusually strong national Republican wave capable of overcoming the district’s underlying partisan math.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問