Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race due to his 14-point victory in 2024 and the district's D+2 partisan voter index. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican interest in mounting a serious challenge. Ryan maintains nearly $3 million in campaign funds as of March, while Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer secured ballot access only after petition disputes and faces a low-profile primary in June. Trader consensus at 91.8 percent for Democrats aligns with historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in modestly Democratic-leaning districts. A national Republican wave or major local scandal could narrow the margin, though no such developments have emerged to shift probabilities meaningfully before the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,104 Vol.
$33,104 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
$33,104 Vol.
$33,104 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
$31,801 Vol.
92%
共和党
$1,303 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race due to his 14-point victory in 2024 and the district's D+2 partisan voter index. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican interest in mounting a serious challenge. Ryan maintains nearly $3 million in campaign funds as of March, while Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer secured ballot access only after petition disputes and faces a low-profile primary in June. Trader consensus at 91.8 percent for Democrats aligns with historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in modestly Democratic-leaning districts. A national Republican wave or major local scandal could narrow the margin, though no such developments have emerged to shift probabilities meaningfully before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$33,104終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race due to his 14-point victory in 2024 and the district's D+2 partisan voter index. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican interest in mounting a serious challenge. Ryan maintains nearly $3 million in campaign funds as of March, while Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer secured ballot access only after petition disputes and faces a low-profile primary in June. Trader consensus at 91.8 percent for Democrats aligns with historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in modestly Democratic-leaning districts. A national Republican wave or major local scandal could narrow the margin, though no such developments have emerged to shift probabilities meaningfully before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,104終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race due to his 14-point victory in 2024 and the district's D+2 partisan voter index. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting limited Republican interest in mounting a serious challenge. Ryan maintains nearly $3 million in campaign funds as of March, while Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer secured ballot access only after petition disputes and faces a low-profile primary in June. Trader consensus at 91.8 percent for Democrats aligns with historical midterm patterns favoring incumbents in modestly Democratic-leaning districts. A national Republican wave or major local scandal could narrow the margin, though no such developments have emerged to shift probabilities meaningfully before the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問