Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 race after flipping the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier district in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote. Recent primary results confirmed Riley's unopposed Democratic nomination and Peter Oberacker as the Republican nominee, with no major shifts in candidate strength since. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Lean Democratic or better, reflecting Riley's fundraising edge, constituent service record, and the district's narrow partisan lean. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability, consistent with historical advantages for incumbents in similar battlegrounds and the absence of late-cycle developments that could reopen the contest before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
90%
共和党
10%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$2,341 Vol.
90%
共和党
$2,766 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 race after flipping the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier district in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote. Recent primary results confirmed Riley's unopposed Democratic nomination and Peter Oberacker as the Republican nominee, with no major shifts in candidate strength since. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Lean Democratic or better, reflecting Riley's fundraising edge, constituent service record, and the district's narrow partisan lean. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability, consistent with historical advantages for incumbents in similar battlegrounds and the absence of late-cycle developments that could reopen the contest before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
音量
$5,106終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 race after flipping the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier district in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote. Recent primary results confirmed Riley's unopposed Democratic nomination and Peter Oberacker as the Republican nominee, with no major shifts in candidate strength since. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Lean Democratic or better, reflecting Riley's fundraising edge, constituent service record, and the district's narrow partisan lean. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability, consistent with historical advantages for incumbents in similar battlegrounds and the absence of late-cycle developments that could reopen the contest before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,106終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 race after flipping the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier district in 2024 with 51.1% of the vote. Recent primary results confirmed Riley's unopposed Democratic nomination and Peter Oberacker as the Republican nominee, with no major shifts in candidate strength since. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Lean Democratic or better, reflecting Riley's fundraising edge, constituent service record, and the district's narrow partisan lean. Traders assign the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability, consistent with historical advantages for incumbents in similar battlegrounds and the absence of late-cycle developments that could reopen the contest before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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