Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas's 18th congressional district after a decisive primary victory over Al Green and now holds the seat as incumbent following his January 2026 special election win. The district's longstanding Democratic voter base in Houston, shaped by recent redistricting that consolidated urban Democratic areas, underpins trader consensus favoring the party at 96.5 percent. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield faces structural headwinds in a constituency with consistent Democratic majorities in prior cycles. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited realistic paths for an upset before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$12,751 Vol.
$12,751 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
96%
共和党
4%
$12,751 Vol.
$12,751 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
$12,372 Vol.
96%
共和党
$379 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas's 18th congressional district after a decisive primary victory over Al Green and now holds the seat as incumbent following his January 2026 special election win. The district's longstanding Democratic voter base in Houston, shaped by recent redistricting that consolidated urban Democratic areas, underpins trader consensus favoring the party at 96.5 percent. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield faces structural headwinds in a constituency with consistent Democratic majorities in prior cycles. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited realistic paths for an upset before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
音量
$12,751終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas's 18th congressional district after a decisive primary victory over Al Green and now holds the seat as incumbent following his January 2026 special election win. The district's longstanding Democratic voter base in Houston, shaped by recent redistricting that consolidated urban Democratic areas, underpins trader consensus favoring the party at 96.5 percent. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield faces structural headwinds in a constituency with consistent Democratic majorities in prior cycles. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited realistic paths for an upset before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$12,751終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas's 18th congressional district after a decisive primary victory over Al Green and now holds the seat as incumbent following his January 2026 special election win. The district's longstanding Democratic voter base in Houston, shaped by recent redistricting that consolidated urban Democratic areas, underpins trader consensus favoring the party at 96.5 percent. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield faces structural headwinds in a constituency with consistent Democratic majorities in prior cycles. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited realistic paths for an upset before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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