Putin has consolidated authority through an October 2026 government reshuffle that curtailed Prime Minister Mishustin’s administrative leverage while installing younger technocrats aligned with the Kremlin. Independent and state polls show his approval rebounding modestly to the mid-70s by late October, recovering from earlier wartime declines without evidence of acute elite fractures. Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral Ukraine talks scheduled for mid-November and planned diplomatic engagements, including potential APEC sidelines, reinforce his active leadership role. Institutional controls over security services, the Duma, and succession mechanisms continue to limit near-term removal scenarios through December 2026, though trader pricing reflects awareness that sudden health events or major battlefield reversals could still alter timelines.