Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate seeking re-election on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Paraná Pesquisas show him leading Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party by double-digit margins in first-round scenarios, often reaching 38-49 percent support while Haddad trails between 26 and 42 percent. This polling advantage, combined with limited traction for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, has prompted concerns among PT strategists that the absence of a viable third-way candidate could produce a first-round victory. Trader consensus on current odds reflects these trends and the structural benefits of incumbency ahead of formal candidate registration deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
キム・カタギリ 10.4%
Fernando Haddad 8.3%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 Vol.
$26,317 Vol.
2026/10/04
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
キム・カタギリ
10%
Fernando Haddad
8%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
キム・カタギリ 10.4%
Fernando Haddad 8.3%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 Vol.
$26,317 Vol.
2026/10/04
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,929 Vol.
82%
キム・カタギリ
$4,186 Vol.
10%
Fernando Haddad
$3,970 Vol.
8%
Erika Hilton
$3,589 Vol.
2%
Márcio França
$2,644 Vol.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate seeking re-election on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Paraná Pesquisas show him leading Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party by double-digit margins in first-round scenarios, often reaching 38-49 percent support while Haddad trails between 26 and 42 percent. This polling advantage, combined with limited traction for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, has prompted concerns among PT strategists that the absence of a viable third-way candidate could produce a first-round victory. Trader consensus on current odds reflects these trends and the structural benefits of incumbency ahead of formal candidate registration deadlines.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
音量
$26,317終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate seeking re-election on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Paraná Pesquisas show him leading Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party by double-digit margins in first-round scenarios, often reaching 38-49 percent support while Haddad trails between 26 and 42 percent. This polling advantage, combined with limited traction for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, has prompted concerns among PT strategists that the absence of a viable third-way candidate could produce a first-round victory. Trader consensus on current odds reflects these trends and the structural benefits of incumbency ahead of formal candidate registration deadlines.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$26,317終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate seeking re-election on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Paraná Pesquisas show him leading Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party by double-digit margins in first-round scenarios, often reaching 38-49 percent support while Haddad trails between 26 and 42 percent. This polling advantage, combined with limited traction for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, has prompted concerns among PT strategists that the absence of a viable third-way candidate could produce a first-round victory. Trader consensus on current odds reflects these trends and the structural benefits of incumbency ahead of formal candidate registration deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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