President Trump’s January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has intensified U.S. pressure on Cuba through new executive orders declaring a national emergency, sanctions on Cuban regime officials and military-linked entities, and tariffs targeting foreign oil suppliers. These moves, paired with a de facto fuel blockade and a surge in U.S. Navy and Air Force surveillance flights near Havana and Santiago since February, have fueled trader focus on possible military action. Pentagon contingency planning has accelerated, yet senior officials state no strikes are imminent and emphasize competing priorities such as Iran. Cuba’s government has condemned the threats as escalatory while rejecting negotiations. Congressional Republicans have signaled caution, and no congressional authorization or large-scale force movements have materialized. Traders therefore assess rhetorical signals and preparatory steps against the absence of confirmed operational triggers through the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$4,214,980 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
43%
$4,214,980 Vol.
12月31日
$2,035,876 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.President Trump’s January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has intensified U.S. pressure on Cuba through new executive orders declaring a national emergency, sanctions on Cuban regime officials and military-linked entities, and tariffs targeting foreign oil suppliers. These moves, paired with a de facto fuel blockade and a surge in U.S. Navy and Air Force surveillance flights near Havana and Santiago since February, have fueled trader focus on possible military action. Pentagon contingency planning has accelerated, yet senior officials state no strikes are imminent and emphasize competing priorities such as Iran. Cuba’s government has condemned the threats as escalatory while rejecting negotiations. Congressional Republicans have signaled caution, and no congressional authorization or large-scale force movements have materialized. Traders therefore assess rhetorical signals and preparatory steps against the absence of confirmed operational triggers through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
音量
$4,214,980終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.President Trump’s January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has intensified U.S. pressure on Cuba through new executive orders declaring a national emergency, sanctions on Cuban regime officials and military-linked entities, and tariffs targeting foreign oil suppliers. These moves, paired with a de facto fuel blockade and a surge in U.S. Navy and Air Force surveillance flights near Havana and Santiago since February, have fueled trader focus on possible military action. Pentagon contingency planning has accelerated, yet senior officials state no strikes are imminent and emphasize competing priorities such as Iran. Cuba’s government has condemned the threats as escalatory while rejecting negotiations. Congressional Republicans have signaled caution, and no congressional authorization or large-scale force movements have materialized. Traders therefore assess rhetorical signals and preparatory steps against the absence of confirmed operational triggers through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$4,214,980終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has intensified U.S. pressure on Cuba through new executive orders declaring a national emergency, sanctions on Cuban regime officials and military-linked entities, and tariffs targeting foreign oil suppliers. These moves, paired with a de facto fuel blockade and a surge in U.S. Navy and Air Force surveillance flights near Havana and Santiago since February, have fueled trader focus on possible military action. Pentagon contingency planning has accelerated, yet senior officials state no strikes are imminent and emphasize competing priorities such as Iran. Cuba’s government has condemned the threats as escalatory while rejecting negotiations. Congressional Republicans have signaled caution, and no congressional authorization or large-scale force movements have materialized. Traders therefore assess rhetorical signals and preparatory steps against the absence of confirmed operational triggers through the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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