President Trump has continued to emphasize election security concerns during his second term, including investigations into prior voting processes and administration actions targeting noncitizen voter rolls ahead of the 2026 midterms. Recent developments include the ousting of election commission members and public statements linking foreign actors to potential threats, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions with nations such as Iran. With only days remaining until July 16, trader focus centers on any new official remarks or executive measures that could name specific countries. Historical patterns show such accusations often tie to diplomatic disputes or domestic policy priorities rather than verified incidents within short timeframes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/07/16
イラン
40%
中国
29%
ウクライナ
26%
ロシア
16%
メキシコ
14%
北朝鮮
13%
ドイツ
12%
カナダ
5%
イスラエル
5%
$8,188 Vol.
イラン
$109 Vol.
40%
中国
$270 Vol.
29%
ウクライナ
$0 Vol.
26%
ロシア
$325 Vol.
16%
メキシコ
$1,646 Vol.
14%
北朝鮮
$3,149 Vol.
13%
ドイツ
$1,215 Vol.
12%
カナダ
$1,492 Vol.
5%
イスラエル
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly alleges that interference by the listed country has occurred in any US election held after the 2016 US presidential election between market creation and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns. Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify.
The alleged interference must be attributed to the government of the listed country, a state-affiliated entity, organization, or nationals of the listed country acting in that capacity. The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers").
A qualifying statement must definitively allege that election interference occurred. Statements that are clearly satirical, hypothetical, or rhetorical will not qualify (e.g., "Did China interfere? Who knows," "If China interfered...", "They could easily interfere”).
A statement need not use the word "interference." Any phrasing that communicates the three elements above (e.g., "China stole the election," "Russia rigged the vote in Pennsylvania") will qualify.
Reposts, retweets, or shares of third-party content will qualify only if accompanied by original commentary from Trump that itself meets the criteria above, or if the repost includes an unambiguous endorsement of a qualifying claim (e.g., "TRUE!"). A bare repost without comment will not qualify.
Statements made by representatives will not alone qualify. Reports of private conversations, leaked audio not intended for public release, and secondhand accounts will not qualify.
Any public statement from the listed individual, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the listed individual begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their allegation falls outside the market’s timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements by Donald Trump.President Trump has continued to emphasize election security concerns during his second term, including investigations into prior voting processes and administration actions targeting noncitizen voter rolls ahead of the 2026 midterms. Recent developments include the ousting of election commission members and public statements linking foreign actors to potential threats, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions with nations such as Iran. With only days remaining until July 16, trader focus centers on any new official remarks or executive measures that could name specific countries. Historical patterns show such accusations often tie to diplomatic disputes or domestic policy priorities rather than verified incidents within short timeframes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly alleges that interference by the listed country has occurred in any US election held after the 2016 US presidential election between market creation and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns. Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify.
The alleged interference must be attributed to the government of the listed country, a state-affiliated entity, organization, or nationals of the listed country acting in that capacity. The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers").
A qualifying statement must definitively allege that election interference occurred. Statements that are clearly satirical, hypothetical, or rhetorical will not qualify (e.g., "Did China interfere? Who knows," "If China interfered...", "They could easily interfere”).
A statement need not use the word "interference." Any phrasing that communicates the three elements above (e.g., "China stole the election," "Russia rigged the vote in Pennsylvania") will qualify.
Reposts, retweets, or shares of third-party content will qualify only if accompanied by original commentary from Trump that itself meets the criteria above, or if the repost includes an unambiguous endorsement of a qualifying claim (e.g., "TRUE!"). A bare repost without comment will not qualify.
Statements made by representatives will not alone qualify. Reports of private conversations, leaked audio not intended for public release, and secondhand accounts will not qualify.
Any public statement from the listed individual, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the listed individual begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their allegation falls outside the market’s timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements by Donald Trump.
Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns. Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify.
The alleged interference must be attributed to the government of the listed country, a state-affiliated entity, organization, or nationals of the listed country acting in that capacity. The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers").
A qualifying statement must definitively allege that election interference occurred. Statements that are clearly satirical, hypothetical, or rhetorical will not qualify (e.g., "Did China interfere? Who knows," "If China interfered...", "They could easily interfere”).
A statement need not use the word "interference." Any phrasing that communicates the three elements above (e.g., "China stole the election," "Russia rigged the vote in Pennsylvania") will qualify.
Reposts, retweets, or shares of third-party content will qualify only if accompanied by original commentary from Trump that itself meets the criteria above, or if the repost includes an unambiguous endorsement of a qualifying claim (e.g., "TRUE!"). A bare repost without comment will not qualify.
Statements made by representatives will not alone qualify. Reports of private conversations, leaked audio not intended for public release, and secondhand accounts will not qualify.
Any public statement from the listed individual, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the listed individual begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their allegation falls outside the market’s timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements by Donald Trump.
マーケット開始日： Jul 13, 2026, 10:32 PM ET
音量
$8,188終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 13, 2026, 10:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly alleges that interference by the listed country has occurred in any US election held after the 2016 US presidential election between market creation and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns. Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify.
The alleged interference must be attributed to the government of the listed country, a state-affiliated entity, organization, or nationals of the listed country acting in that capacity. The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers").
A qualifying statement must definitively allege that election interference occurred. Statements that are clearly satirical, hypothetical, or rhetorical will not qualify (e.g., "Did China interfere? Who knows," "If China interfered...", "They could easily interfere”).
A statement need not use the word "interference." Any phrasing that communicates the three elements above (e.g., "China stole the election," "Russia rigged the vote in Pennsylvania") will qualify.
Reposts, retweets, or shares of third-party content will qualify only if accompanied by original commentary from Trump that itself meets the criteria above, or if the repost includes an unambiguous endorsement of a qualifying claim (e.g., "TRUE!"). A bare repost without comment will not qualify.
Statements made by representatives will not alone qualify. Reports of private conversations, leaked audio not intended for public release, and secondhand accounts will not qualify.
Any public statement from the listed individual, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the listed individual begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their allegation falls outside the market’s timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements by Donald Trump.President Trump has continued to emphasize election security concerns during his second term, including investigations into prior voting processes and administration actions targeting noncitizen voter rolls ahead of the 2026 midterms. Recent developments include the ousting of election commission members and public statements linking foreign actors to potential threats, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions with nations such as Iran. With only days remaining until July 16, trader focus centers on any new official remarks or executive measures that could name specific countries. Historical patterns show such accusations often tie to diplomatic disputes or domestic policy priorities rather than verified incidents within short timeframes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly alleges that interference by the listed country has occurred in any US election held after the 2016 US presidential election between market creation and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns. Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify.
The alleged interference must be attributed to the government of the listed country, a state-affiliated entity, organization, or nationals of the listed country acting in that capacity. The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers").
A qualifying statement must definitively allege that election interference occurred. Statements that are clearly satirical, hypothetical, or rhetorical will not qualify (e.g., "Did China interfere? Who knows," "If China interfered...", "They could easily interfere”).
A statement need not use the word "interference." Any phrasing that communicates the three elements above (e.g., "China stole the election," "Russia rigged the vote in Pennsylvania") will qualify.
Reposts, retweets, or shares of third-party content will qualify only if accompanied by original commentary from Trump that itself meets the criteria above, or if the repost includes an unambiguous endorsement of a qualifying claim (e.g., "TRUE!"). A bare repost without comment will not qualify.
Statements made by representatives will not alone qualify. Reports of private conversations, leaked audio not intended for public release, and secondhand accounts will not qualify.
Any public statement from the listed individual, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the listed individual begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their allegation falls outside the market’s timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements by Donald Trump.
Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns. Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify.
The alleged interference must be attributed to the government of the listed country, a state-affiliated entity, organization, or nationals of the listed country acting in that capacity. The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers").
A qualifying statement must definitively allege that election interference occurred. Statements that are clearly satirical, hypothetical, or rhetorical will not qualify (e.g., "Did China interfere? Who knows," "If China interfered...", "They could easily interfere”).
A statement need not use the word "interference." Any phrasing that communicates the three elements above (e.g., "China stole the election," "Russia rigged the vote in Pennsylvania") will qualify.
Reposts, retweets, or shares of third-party content will qualify only if accompanied by original commentary from Trump that itself meets the criteria above, or if the repost includes an unambiguous endorsement of a qualifying claim (e.g., "TRUE!"). A bare repost without comment will not qualify.
Statements made by representatives will not alone qualify. Reports of private conversations, leaked audio not intended for public release, and secondhand accounts will not qualify.
Any public statement from the listed individual, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the listed individual begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their allegation falls outside the market’s timeframe.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements by Donald Trump.
音量
$8,188終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 13, 2026, 10:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump has continued to emphasize election security concerns during his second term, including investigations into prior voting processes and administration actions targeting noncitizen voter rolls ahead of the 2026 midterms. Recent developments include the ousting of election commission members and public statements linking foreign actors to potential threats, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions with nations such as Iran. With only days remaining until July 16, trader focus centers on any new official remarks or executive measures that could name specific countries. Historical patterns show such accusations often tie to diplomatic disputes or domestic policy priorities rather than verified incidents within short timeframes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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