Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6, 2026, Saxony-Anhalt state election, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent and the Left Party near 13 percent, with smaller parties clustered at or below the 5 percent threshold. Under the state’s mixed-member proportional system for the 83-seat Landtag, an absolute majority requires 42 seats; AfD support in the low-to-mid 40s can convert to that total only if enough minor parties (SPD, Greens, FDP, BSW) fall short of entry, a scenario that remains uncertain rather than assured. No late-campaign surge has lifted AfD polling decisively higher in the final weeks, and traders price the outright-majority outcome at roughly one-third, treating the current lead as substantial yet short of the seat threshold needed for confirmation. The election’s proximity leaves limited room for further movement before results determine resolution.