The 91.5 percent trader consensus against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026 stems from the complete absence of diplomatic relations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the U.S.-Israel military campaign that began with nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026. Recent developments have reinforced this outlook, including repeated violations of fragile ceasefires, continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and against Iranian-linked positions, and President Trump’s May 11 rejection of Tehran’s latest proposal as unacceptable. These factors have left any path to normalization effectively blocked through year-end, with traders pricing in negligible odds absent a fundamental shift in bilateral posture or regime dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$51,779 Vol.
$51,779 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$51,779 Vol.
$51,779 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The 91.5 percent trader consensus against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026 stems from the complete absence of diplomatic relations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the U.S.-Israel military campaign that began with nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026. Recent developments have reinforced this outlook, including repeated violations of fragile ceasefires, continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and against Iranian-linked positions, and President Trump’s May 11 rejection of Tehran’s latest proposal as unacceptable. These factors have left any path to normalization effectively blocked through year-end, with traders pricing in negligible odds absent a fundamental shift in bilateral posture or regime dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
音量
$51,779終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The 91.5 percent trader consensus against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026 stems from the complete absence of diplomatic relations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the U.S.-Israel military campaign that began with nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026. Recent developments have reinforced this outlook, including repeated violations of fragile ceasefires, continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and against Iranian-linked positions, and President Trump’s May 11 rejection of Tehran’s latest proposal as unacceptable. These factors have left any path to normalization effectively blocked through year-end, with traders pricing in negligible odds absent a fundamental shift in bilateral posture or regime dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$51,779終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 91.5 percent trader consensus against Israel reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026 stems from the complete absence of diplomatic relations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the U.S.-Israel military campaign that began with nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets on February 28, 2026. Recent developments have reinforced this outlook, including repeated violations of fragile ceasefires, continued Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and against Iranian-linked positions, and President Trump’s May 11 rejection of Tehran’s latest proposal as unacceptable. These factors have left any path to normalization effectively blocked through year-end, with traders pricing in negligible odds absent a fundamental shift in bilateral posture or regime dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問