Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes launched in February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and military sites, followed by repeated missile exchanges, ceasefires, and renewed escalations over the Strait of Hormuz into August, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Iran and Israel have maintained no formal relations or embassies since 1979, and the active state of hostilities—with ongoing strikes, territorial disputes in Lebanon and elsewhere, and threats against energy infrastructure—keeps any embassy reopening in Tehran off the table for the remainder of 2026. Trader consensus at 96.7% reflects this structural barrier, though a sudden comprehensive peace agreement or regime-level shift in Tehran could theoretically alter timelines before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$193,377 Vol.
$193,377 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$193,377 Vol.
$193,377 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes launched in February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and military sites, followed by repeated missile exchanges, ceasefires, and renewed escalations over the Strait of Hormuz into August, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Iran and Israel have maintained no formal relations or embassies since 1979, and the active state of hostilities—with ongoing strikes, territorial disputes in Lebanon and elsewhere, and threats against energy infrastructure—keeps any embassy reopening in Tehran off the table for the remainder of 2026. Trader consensus at 96.7% reflects this structural barrier, though a sudden comprehensive peace agreement or regime-level shift in Tehran could theoretically alter timelines before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
音量
$193,377終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes launched in February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and military sites, followed by repeated missile exchanges, ceasefires, and renewed escalations over the Strait of Hormuz into August, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Iran and Israel have maintained no formal relations or embassies since 1979, and the active state of hostilities—with ongoing strikes, territorial disputes in Lebanon and elsewhere, and threats against energy infrastructure—keeps any embassy reopening in Tehran off the table for the remainder of 2026. Trader consensus at 96.7% reflects this structural barrier, though a sudden comprehensive peace agreement or regime-level shift in Tehran could theoretically alter timelines before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$193,377終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, including U.S.-backed strikes launched in February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and military sites, followed by repeated missile exchanges, ceasefires, and renewed escalations over the Strait of Hormuz into August, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Iran and Israel have maintained no formal relations or embassies since 1979, and the active state of hostilities—with ongoing strikes, territorial disputes in Lebanon and elsewhere, and threats against energy infrastructure—keeps any embassy reopening in Tehran off the table for the remainder of 2026. Trader consensus at 96.7% reflects this structural barrier, though a sudden comprehensive peace agreement or regime-level shift in Tehran could theoretically alter timelines before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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