Trump's public commitment to completing his full term, combined with the absence of acute health crises, legal pressures, or bipartisan congressional momentum for removal, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus against resignation by December 31, 2026. Midterm election dynamics, cabinet stability, and routine policy implementation show no signs of forcing an early exit, consistent with the historical rarity of presidential resignations absent extraordinary circumstances like those in 1974. Speculative commentary from opponents on post-midterm fatigue remains unverified and disconnected from official actions or statements. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical incapacity triggering 25th Amendment procedures, an unforeseen scandal producing sustained bipartisan pressure, or a voluntary decision tied to personal or family factors, though none appear imminent based on current developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$527,690 Vol.
$527,690 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$527,690 Vol.
$527,690 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's public commitment to completing his full term, combined with the absence of acute health crises, legal pressures, or bipartisan congressional momentum for removal, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus against resignation by December 31, 2026. Midterm election dynamics, cabinet stability, and routine policy implementation show no signs of forcing an early exit, consistent with the historical rarity of presidential resignations absent extraordinary circumstances like those in 1974. Speculative commentary from opponents on post-midterm fatigue remains unverified and disconnected from official actions or statements.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical incapacity triggering 25th Amendment procedures, an unforeseen scandal producing sustained bipartisan pressure, or a voluntary decision tied to personal or family factors, though none appear imminent based on current developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
音量
$527,690終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's public commitment to completing his full term, combined with the absence of acute health crises, legal pressures, or bipartisan congressional momentum for removal, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus against resignation by December 31, 2026. Midterm election dynamics, cabinet stability, and routine policy implementation show no signs of forcing an early exit, consistent with the historical rarity of presidential resignations absent extraordinary circumstances like those in 1974. Speculative commentary from opponents on post-midterm fatigue remains unverified and disconnected from official actions or statements.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical incapacity triggering 25th Amendment procedures, an unforeseen scandal producing sustained bipartisan pressure, or a voluntary decision tied to personal or family factors, though none appear imminent based on current developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$527,690終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trump's public commitment to completing his full term, combined with the absence of acute health crises, legal pressures, or bipartisan congressional momentum for removal, underpins the 96.4% trader consensus against resignation by December 31, 2026. Midterm election dynamics, cabinet stability, and routine policy implementation show no signs of forcing an early exit, consistent with the historical rarity of presidential resignations absent extraordinary circumstances like those in 1974. Speculative commentary from opponents on post-midterm fatigue remains unverified and disconnected from official actions or statements. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical incapacity triggering 25th Amendment procedures, an unforeseen scandal producing sustained bipartisan pressure, or a voluntary decision tied to personal or family factors, though none appear imminent based on current developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問