Surging Eurozone inflation to 3% in April—driven by 10.9% energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict—has propelled trader consensus to price a 92% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, reversing prior cut expectations. The Governing Council held key rates steady at 2% on April 30, citing upside inflation risks, while ECB board member Isabel Schnabel warned on May 7 of persistent pressures warranting tightening. Bloomberg and Reuters economist surveys from May 11-13 forecast at least two hikes this year, with June's meeting now pivotal; historical patterns show the ECB responds to sustained deviations above its 2% target, though late de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could temper action.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$113,871 거래량
$113,871 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$113,871 거래량
$113,871 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Surging Eurozone inflation to 3% in April—driven by 10.9% energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict—has propelled trader consensus to price a 92% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, reversing prior cut expectations. The Governing Council held key rates steady at 2% on April 30, citing upside inflation risks, while ECB board member Isabel Schnabel warned on May 7 of persistent pressures warranting tightening. Bloomberg and Reuters economist surveys from May 11-13 forecast at least two hikes this year, with June's meeting now pivotal; historical patterns show the ECB responds to sustained deviations above its 2% target, though late de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could temper action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
거래량
$113,871종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Surging Eurozone inflation to 3% in April—driven by 10.9% energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict—has propelled trader consensus to price a 92% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, reversing prior cut expectations. The Governing Council held key rates steady at 2% on April 30, citing upside inflation risks, while ECB board member Isabel Schnabel warned on May 7 of persistent pressures warranting tightening. Bloomberg and Reuters economist surveys from May 11-13 forecast at least two hikes this year, with June's meeting now pivotal; historical patterns show the ECB responds to sustained deviations above its 2% target, though late de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could temper action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$113,871종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Surging Eurozone inflation to 3% in April—driven by 10.9% energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict—has propelled trader consensus to price a 92% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, reversing prior cut expectations. The Governing Council held key rates steady at 2% on April 30, citing upside inflation risks, while ECB board member Isabel Schnabel warned on May 7 of persistent pressures warranting tightening. Bloomberg and Reuters economist surveys from May 11-13 forecast at least two hikes this year, with June's meeting now pivotal; historical patterns show the ECB responds to sustained deviations above its 2% target, though late de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could temper action.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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