The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, approved in a 3-2 split vote and paired with explicit forward guidance that the easing cycle has ended, underpins the 92.1 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. April headline inflation eased to 4.45 percent and core measures to 4.26 percent, both still above the 3 percent target, while the first-quarter economic contraction created additional slack that reduced demand-driven price pressures. Traders view the current restrictive stance as appropriate amid elevated geopolitical uncertainties and the central bank’s revised forecasts showing convergence to target only in the second quarter of 2027. A significantly hotter-than-expected May or June inflation release or an abrupt rebound in activity could reopen the door to further easing, though such outcomes would require material deviation from the latest data trajectory.