**Official forecasts from PAGASA, the Philippine weather agency, currently project a daily maximum of 33–34°C in Metro Manila for June 15, 2026, with a 40% chance of rain and minimums near 26°C.** This aligns closely with the market's leading implied probabilities for 33°C (46.5%) and 34°C (22.5%), as traders weigh model consensus against the typical variability of the southwest monsoon season. June marks the transition to the wet season in Manila, where increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and higher humidity often moderate peak daytime temperatures compared to the drier pre-monsoon months. Historical climatology shows average June highs around 32°C, but recent global temperature trends—projected to remain near record levels—support slightly elevated values without indicating a strong heat anomaly for this specific date. Key resolution factors include the precise official maximum recorded at PAGASA stations, influenced by steering patterns, convective activity, and any last-minute model shifts in the 24–48 hours before observation. The tight clustering around 32–34°C reflects traders incorporating both long-term baselines and the latest agency outlooks, with lower-probability tails (35°C+) discounted due to expected monsoon cloud suppression.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 15일 마닐라에서 가장 높은 기온을 기록하셨나요?
6월 15일 마닐라에서 가장 높은 기온을 기록하셨나요?
33°C 47%
32°C 26%
34°C 22%
31°C 3.5%
신규
신규
2026.06.15
28°C 이하
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
3%
32°C
26%
33°C
47%
34°C
22%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C 이상
<1%
33°C 47%
32°C 26%
34°C 22%
31°C 3.5%
신규
신규
2026.06.15
28°C 이하
$677 거래량
1%
29°C
$221 거래량
1%
30°C
$154 거래량
<1%
31°C
$482 거래량
3%
32°C
$167 거래량
26%
33°C
$152 거래량
47%
34°C
$801 거래량
22%
35°C
$421 거래량
3%
36°C
$154 거래량
1%
37°C
$105 거래량
<1%
38°C 이상
$46 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from PAGASA, the Philippine weather agency, currently project a daily maximum of 33–34°C in Metro Manila for June 15, 2026, with a 40% chance of rain and minimums near 26°C.** This aligns closely with the market's leading implied probabilities for 33°C (46.5%) and 34°C (22.5%), as traders weigh model consensus against the typical variability of the southwest monsoon season.
June marks the transition to the wet season in Manila, where increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and higher humidity often moderate peak daytime temperatures compared to the drier pre-monsoon months. Historical climatology shows average June highs around 32°C, but recent global temperature trends—projected to remain near record levels—support slightly elevated values without indicating a strong heat anomaly for this specific date.
Key resolution factors include the precise official maximum recorded at PAGASA stations, influenced by steering patterns, convective activity, and any last-minute model shifts in the 24–48 hours before observation. The tight clustering around 32–34°C reflects traders incorporating both long-term baselines and the latest agency outlooks, with lower-probability tails (35°C+) discounted due to expected monsoon cloud suppression.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jun 13, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
거래량
$3,380종료일
2026.06.15마켓 개설일
Jun 13, 2026, 12:11 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from PAGASA, the Philippine weather agency, currently project a daily maximum of 33–34°C in Metro Manila for June 15, 2026, with a 40% chance of rain and minimums near 26°C.** This aligns closely with the market's leading implied probabilities for 33°C (46.5%) and 34°C (22.5%), as traders weigh model consensus against the typical variability of the southwest monsoon season.
June marks the transition to the wet season in Manila, where increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and higher humidity often moderate peak daytime temperatures compared to the drier pre-monsoon months. Historical climatology shows average June highs around 32°C, but recent global temperature trends—projected to remain near record levels—support slightly elevated values without indicating a strong heat anomaly for this specific date.
Key resolution factors include the precise official maximum recorded at PAGASA stations, influenced by steering patterns, convective activity, and any last-minute model shifts in the 24–48 hours before observation. The tight clustering around 32–34°C reflects traders incorporating both long-term baselines and the latest agency outlooks, with lower-probability tails (35°C+) discounted due to expected monsoon cloud suppression.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
거래량
$3,380종료일
2026.06.15마켓 개설일
Jun 13, 2026, 12:11 AM ET**Official forecasts from PAGASA, the Philippine weather agency, currently project a daily maximum of 33–34°C in Metro Manila for June 15, 2026, with a 40% chance of rain and minimums near 26°C.** This aligns closely with the market's leading implied probabilities for 33°C (46.5%) and 34°C (22.5%), as traders weigh model consensus against the typical variability of the southwest monsoon season. June marks the transition to the wet season in Manila, where increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and higher humidity often moderate peak daytime temperatures compared to the drier pre-monsoon months. Historical climatology shows average June highs around 32°C, but recent global temperature trends—projected to remain near record levels—support slightly elevated values without indicating a strong heat anomaly for this specific date. Key resolution factors include the precise official maximum recorded at PAGASA stations, influenced by steering patterns, convective activity, and any last-minute model shifts in the 24–48 hours before observation. The tight clustering around 32–34°C reflects traders incorporating both long-term baselines and the latest agency outlooks, with lower-probability tails (35°C+) discounted due to expected monsoon cloud suppression.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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