Recent forecast guidance from Météo-France and ensemble models shows Paris under a lingering maritime air mass with extensive cloud cover and light west-southwest winds, limiting daytime heating and pointing to a daily maximum near 16°C. This aligns with the market’s leading 16°C outcome at 65.5 percent implied probability, as afternoon temperatures are expected to peak in the mid-teens Celsius before any brief clearing allows slight additional warming. Historical May climatology places average highs around 18°C, but persistent unstable conditions earlier this week have kept readings suppressed. Updated model runs this morning continue to favor 15–17°C as the most probable range, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any late-day sun breaks.