Recent numerical weather model runs place Tel Aviv’s June 18 maximum temperature near the 29–30 °C threshold, with Israel Meteorological Service guidance indicating a seasonal high of 28 °C under partly cloudy skies. Trader sentiment remains closely split because ensemble spreads in the ECMWF and GFS outputs hinge on the precise timing and strength of the Mediterranean sea breeze, which can suppress afternoon peaks by 1–2 °C, versus a modest upper-level ridge that favors slight warming. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, low-level humidity, and the absence of any Sharav easterly flow keep 31 °C and higher outcomes at low implied probability while rendering the 29 °C versus 30 °C distinction sensitive to the next model update cycle before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on June 18?
29°C 49%
30°C 45%
31°C 6%
28°C 4.0%
26°C 이하
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
49%
30°C
45%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C 이상
<1%
29°C 49%
30°C 45%
31°C 6%
28°C 4.0%
26°C 이하
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
49%
30°C
45%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C 이상
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jun 16, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather model runs place Tel Aviv’s June 18 maximum temperature near the 29–30 °C threshold, with Israel Meteorological Service guidance indicating a seasonal high of 28 °C under partly cloudy skies. Trader sentiment remains closely split because ensemble spreads in the ECMWF and GFS outputs hinge on the precise timing and strength of the Mediterranean sea breeze, which can suppress afternoon peaks by 1–2 °C, versus a modest upper-level ridge that favors slight warming. Subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, low-level humidity, and the absence of any Sharav easterly flow keep 31 °C and higher outcomes at low implied probability while rendering the 29 °C versus 30 °C distinction sensitive to the next model update cycle before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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