Recent global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows steady activity consistent with the long-term average of five to eight magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes per week. Primary drivers include ongoing subduction along the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered mid-ocean ridge events, without major aftershock sequences or unusual clustering that would push totals higher. This pattern has produced a market-implied probability exceeding 94 percent for exactly six such events by period close. Final counts could shift if additional detections or magnitude revisions appear in complete catalogs, though current data show no magnitude 7-plus outliers to alter the distribution significantly.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
6 97.8%
7 4.0%
4 <1%
≤3 <1%
$140,881 거래량
$140,881 거래량
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
98%
7
4%
8
<1%
9
<1%
>9
<1%
6 97.8%
7 4.0%
4 <1%
≤3 <1%
$140,881 거래량
$140,881 거래량
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
98%
7
4%
8
<1%
9
<1%
>9
<1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: May 9, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows steady activity consistent with the long-term average of five to eight magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes per week. Primary drivers include ongoing subduction along the Pacific Ring of Fire and scattered mid-ocean ridge events, without major aftershock sequences or unusual clustering that would push totals higher. This pattern has produced a market-implied probability exceeding 94 percent for exactly six such events by period close. Final counts could shift if additional detections or magnitude revisions appear in complete catalogs, though current data show no magnitude 7-plus outliers to alter the distribution significantly.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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