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icon for 2026년에 출마하지 않은 민주당 하원 의원은 몇 명입니까?
정치·의회

2026년에 출마하지 않은 민주당 하원 의원은 몇 명입니까?

icon for 2026년에 출마하지 않은 민주당 하원 의원은 몇 명입니까?
정치·의회

2026년에 출마하지 않은 민주당 하원 의원은 몇 명입니까?

32–35 30.1%

24–27 22%

28–31 18%

20–23 15.4%

Polymarket

$31,637 거래량

32–35 30.1%

24–27 22%

28–31 18%

20–23 15.4%

Polymarket

$31,637 거래량

20명 미만

$16,991 거래량

2%

20–23

$5,244 거래량

15%

24–27

$4,156 거래량

22%

28–31

$1,164 거래량

18%

32–35

$3,574 거래량

30%

36–39

$508 거래량

3%

40명 이상

$0 거래량

17%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of May 15, 2026, 21 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, including Rep. Steve Cohen's fresh retirement declaration from Tennessee's 9th District, amid a record 57 total House departures signaling institutional frustration and redistricting pressures. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 32–35 (30%) and lower ranges like 24–27 (20%) and 40+ (20.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the pace of further exits from vulnerable districts in battleground states, where incumbents face midterm headwinds under a Republican presidency. Historical patterns show retirements accelerating toward summer filing deadlines and primaries, with potential for separation via announcements from swing-district moderates or leadership figures; conversely, party recruitment efforts could cap the total below 30.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$31,637
종료일
2026.08.31
마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of May 15, 2026, 21 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, including Rep. Steve Cohen's fresh retirement declaration from Tennessee's 9th District, amid a record 57 total House departures signaling institutional frustration and redistricting pressures. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 32–35 (30%) and lower ranges like 24–27 (20%) and 40+ (20.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the pace of further exits from vulnerable districts in battleground states, where incumbents face midterm headwinds under a Republican presidency. Historical patterns show retirements accelerating toward summer filing deadlines and primaries, with potential for separation via announcements from swing-district moderates or leadership figures; conversely, party recruitment efforts could cap the total below 30.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$31,637
종료일
2026.08.31
마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"2026년에 출마하지 않은 민주당 하원 의원은 몇 명입니까?"은 7개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 30%의 "32–35"이며, 이어서 22%의 "24–27"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 30¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 30%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "2026년에 출마하지 않은 민주당 하원 의원은 몇 명입니까?"은 총 $31.6K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Dec 12, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"2026년에 출마하지 않은 민주당 하원 의원은 몇 명입니까?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 7개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"2026년에 출마하지 않은 민주당 하원 의원은 몇 명입니까?"의 현재 유력 후보는 30%의 "32–35"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 30%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 22%의 "24–27"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"2026년에 출마하지 않은 민주당 하원 의원은 몇 명입니까?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.