Recent April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating consensus forecasts of 55,000–65,000 yet marking a clear step down from March’s 185,000 gain and leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3 percent. This mixed print, combined with decelerating job openings, tariff-related uncertainty, and accelerating AI-driven productivity shifts, has left traders divided on May outcomes. The near-even split between the 0–50k and 150–200k brackets reflects competing views on whether labor-market cooling will intensify or give way to a rebound ahead of the June 5 release. Market-implied odds continue to price in substantial dispersion around the consensus range of 70,000–100,000, underscoring the sensitivity of positioning to incoming data on claims, wage growth, and sector-specific hiring trends.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트100k – 150k 41%
150k – 200k 30%
200k+ 22%
50k – 100k 22%
<0
15%
0 – 50k
32%
50k – 100k
17%
100k – 150k
28%
150k – 200k
30%
200k+
22%
100k – 150k 41%
150k – 200k 30%
200k+ 22%
50k – 100k 22%
<0
15%
0 – 50k
32%
50k – 100k
17%
100k – 150k
28%
150k – 200k
30%
200k+
22%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
마켓 개설일: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating consensus forecasts of 55,000–65,000 yet marking a clear step down from March’s 185,000 gain and leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3 percent. This mixed print, combined with decelerating job openings, tariff-related uncertainty, and accelerating AI-driven productivity shifts, has left traders divided on May outcomes. The near-even split between the 0–50k and 150–200k brackets reflects competing views on whether labor-market cooling will intensify or give way to a rebound ahead of the June 5 release. Market-implied odds continue to price in substantial dispersion around the consensus range of 70,000–100,000, underscoring the sensitivity of positioning to incoming data on claims, wage growth, and sector-specific hiring trends.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문