Incumbent Karen Bass secured first place in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary with roughly 34% of the vote, outpacing Nithya Raman by approximately 5 percentage points and Spencer Pratt by nearly 9 points once late mail ballots were fully tabulated. Pre-election polling from UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times showed a tight three-way contest among likely voters, with Bass holding a statistically insignificant edge that held through election night despite criticism of her record on housing, homelessness, and public safety. The nonpartisan top-two system advanced Bass and Raman to the November runoff, and the final certified margin aligned closely with trader expectations reflected in the dominant 5–10% outcome pricing. Late shifts in ballot processing narrowed Pratt's early lead over Raman but did not alter Bass's position at the top. Scenarios that could still adjust final tallies include any remaining uncounted provisional ballots or official certification disputes, though nearly all votes have now been processed.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Bass 5–10% 94.3%
Bass 0–5% 2.4%
Bass 10–15% 1.0%
Bass 15%+ <1%
$207,054 거래량
$207,054 거래량
2026.06.02
Bass 0–5%
2%
Bass 5–10%
94%
Bass 10–15%
1%
Bass 15%+
<1%
Pratt Wins
<1%
Raman Wins
<1%
Other
<1%
Bass 5–10% 94.3%
Bass 0–5% 2.4%
Bass 10–15% 1.0%
Bass 15%+ <1%
$207,054 거래량
$207,054 거래량
2026.06.02
Bass 0–5%
$42,695 거래량
2%
Bass 5–10%
$50,867 거래량
94%
Bass 10–15%
$31,866 거래량
1%
Bass 15%+
$11,286 거래량
<1%
Pratt Wins
$36,150 거래량
<1%
Raman Wins
$22,186 거래량
<1%
Other
$12,004 거래량
<1%
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Karen Bass secured first place in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary with roughly 34% of the vote, outpacing Nithya Raman by approximately 5 percentage points and Spencer Pratt by nearly 9 points once late mail ballots were fully tabulated. Pre-election polling from UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times showed a tight three-way contest among likely voters, with Bass holding a statistically insignificant edge that held through election night despite criticism of her record on housing, homelessness, and public safety. The nonpartisan top-two system advanced Bass and Raman to the November runoff, and the final certified margin aligned closely with trader expectations reflected in the dominant 5–10% outcome pricing. Late shifts in ballot processing narrowed Pratt's early lead over Raman but did not alter Bass's position at the top. Scenarios that could still adjust final tallies include any remaining uncounted provisional ballots or official certification disputes, though nearly all votes have now been processed.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
마켓 개설일: May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
거래량
$207,054종료일
2026.06.02마켓 개설일
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Karen Bass secured first place in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary with roughly 34% of the vote, outpacing Nithya Raman by approximately 5 percentage points and Spencer Pratt by nearly 9 points once late mail ballots were fully tabulated. Pre-election polling from UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times showed a tight three-way contest among likely voters, with Bass holding a statistically insignificant edge that held through election night despite criticism of her record on housing, homelessness, and public safety. The nonpartisan top-two system advanced Bass and Raman to the November runoff, and the final certified margin aligned closely with trader expectations reflected in the dominant 5–10% outcome pricing. Late shifts in ballot processing narrowed Pratt's early lead over Raman but did not alter Bass's position at the top. Scenarios that could still adjust final tallies include any remaining uncounted provisional ballots or official certification disputes, though nearly all votes have now been processed.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
거래량
$207,054종료일
2026.06.02마켓 개설일
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Karen Bass secured first place in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary with roughly 34% of the vote, outpacing Nithya Raman by approximately 5 percentage points and Spencer Pratt by nearly 9 points once late mail ballots were fully tabulated. Pre-election polling from UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times showed a tight three-way contest among likely voters, with Bass holding a statistically insignificant edge that held through election night despite criticism of her record on housing, homelessness, and public safety. The nonpartisan top-two system advanced Bass and Raman to the November runoff, and the final certified margin aligned closely with trader expectations reflected in the dominant 5–10% outcome pricing. Late shifts in ballot processing narrowed Pratt's early lead over Raman but did not alter Bass's position at the top. Scenarios that could still adjust final tallies include any remaining uncounted provisional ballots or official certification disputes, though nearly all votes have now been processed.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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