**Current short-range model consensus points to a minimum temperature in London on June 13 of 13–15 °C, aligning closely with the tightly bunched market probabilities (14 °C at 31 %, 13 °C at 27 %, 15 °C at 21 %).** After the exceptional May heatwave, the Met Office and European models show a return to near-climatological conditions for mid-June, with overnight lows influenced by a moderate westerly flow and variable cloud. Key differentiating factors include the degree of nocturnal radiative cooling under clearer skies versus trapped heat under increased cloud cover or stronger winds, plus any subtle Atlantic front timing that could nudge the minimum by 1–2 °C. Historical baselines place typical June minima near 12–13 °C, so current guidance sits slightly above average but with modest spread across ensemble members. Updated runs from the UK Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten this range ahead of market resolution.