Recent monthly global temperature anomalies, including April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, have anchored trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for May. Neutral ENSO conditions currently prevail, with subsurface warming signaling an 82% chance of El Niño emergence by May–July per the Climate Prediction Center; this transition typically adds lagged warmth but exerts limited influence on May itself. The long-term anthropogenic trend continues elevating baselines, as seen in the past decade's consistent top rankings, while model spreads from NMME and ECMWF reflect typical spring variability. New observational data releases later this month will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 60%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 거래량
$58,574 거래량
2026.06.10
<1.10ºC
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
60%
1.15–1.19ºC
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 60%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 거래량
$58,574 거래량
2026.06.10
<1.10ºC
$23,927 거래량
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 거래량
60%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,783 거래량
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 거래량
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 거래량
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent monthly global temperature anomalies, including April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, have anchored trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for May. Neutral ENSO conditions currently prevail, with subsurface warming signaling an 82% chance of El Niño emergence by May–July per the Climate Prediction Center; this transition typically adds lagged warmth but exerts limited influence on May itself. The long-term anthropogenic trend continues elevating baselines, as seen in the past decade's consistent top rankings, while model spreads from NMME and ECMWF reflect typical spring variability. New observational data releases later this month will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
거래량
$58,574종료일
2026.06.10마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent monthly global temperature anomalies, including April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, have anchored trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for May. Neutral ENSO conditions currently prevail, with subsurface warming signaling an 82% chance of El Niño emergence by May–July per the Climate Prediction Center; this transition typically adds lagged warmth but exerts limited influence on May itself. The long-term anthropogenic trend continues elevating baselines, as seen in the past decade's consistent top rankings, while model spreads from NMME and ECMWF reflect typical spring variability. New observational data releases later this month will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
거래량
$58,574종료일
2026.06.10마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly global temperature anomalies, including April 2026 at 1.12°C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, have anchored trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for May. Neutral ENSO conditions currently prevail, with subsurface warming signaling an 82% chance of El Niño emergence by May–July per the Climate Prediction Center; this transition typically adds lagged warmth but exerts limited influence on May itself. The long-term anthropogenic trend continues elevating baselines, as seen in the past decade's consistent top rankings, while model spreads from NMME and ECMWF reflect typical spring variability. New observational data releases later this month will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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