Democratic incumbent Steven Horsford holds a strong structural edge in Nevada’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, citing the district’s D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Horsford’s 2024 re-election with 52.7 percent of the vote in a seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly two points. The June 9, 2026, primaries clarified the general-election matchup, with Horsford advancing on the Democratic side and Cody Whipple securing the Republican nomination. These factors—incumbency, modest partisan lean, and settled nominees—underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party while leaving room for shifts based on national conditions or turnout patterns in this competitive Las Vegas-area district.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
15%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$827 거래량
87%
Republican Party
$605 거래량
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Steven Horsford holds a strong structural edge in Nevada’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, citing the district’s D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Horsford’s 2024 re-election with 52.7 percent of the vote in a seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly two points. The June 9, 2026, primaries clarified the general-election matchup, with Horsford advancing on the Democratic side and Cody Whipple securing the Republican nomination. These factors—incumbency, modest partisan lean, and settled nominees—underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party while leaving room for shifts based on national conditions or turnout patterns in this competitive Las Vegas-area district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
거래량
$1,432종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Steven Horsford holds a strong structural edge in Nevada’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, citing the district’s D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Horsford’s 2024 re-election with 52.7 percent of the vote in a seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly two points. The June 9, 2026, primaries clarified the general-election matchup, with Horsford advancing on the Democratic side and Cody Whipple securing the Republican nomination. These factors—incumbency, modest partisan lean, and settled nominees—underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party while leaving room for shifts based on national conditions or turnout patterns in this competitive Las Vegas-area district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$1,432종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Steven Horsford holds a strong structural edge in Nevada’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, citing the district’s D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Horsford’s 2024 re-election with 52.7 percent of the vote in a seat that Kamala Harris carried by roughly two points. The June 9, 2026, primaries clarified the general-election matchup, with Horsford advancing on the Democratic side and Cody Whipple securing the Republican nomination. These factors—incumbency, modest partisan lean, and settled nominees—underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party while leaving room for shifts based on national conditions or turnout patterns in this competitive Las Vegas-area district.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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