OpenAI’s leadership tension and mounting financial commitments have anchored trader consensus around a delayed public listing, with the 67.5% implied probability on no IPO by December 31, 2026 reflecting credible reporting that the company’s aggressive fourth-quarter 2026 target faces internal pushback. CEO Sam Altman continues to favor a near-term filing after the recent $122 billion raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet CFO Sarah Friar has flagged the timeline as overly ambitious given heavy compute spending, expected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion, and the need to establish public-company reporting infrastructure. PitchBook analysis released in early May further shifted sentiment by projecting a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window, citing unresolved regulatory preparations and competitive pressures from Anthropic. No S-1 has been filed, and upcoming catalysts such as earnings clarity or further Microsoft partnership adjustments could still influence resolution probabilities before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장 68%
1.5조+ 8.5%
1.25조–1.5조 3.7%
5,000억~7,500억 3.5%
$1,638,863 거래량
$1,638,863 거래량
2026.06.30
5,000억 달러 미만
1%
5,000억~7,500억
3%
7,500억–1조
2%
1조–1.25조
3%
1.25조–1.5조
4%
1.5조+
9%
2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장
68%
2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장 68%
1.5조+ 8.5%
1.25조–1.5조 3.7%
5,000억~7,500억 3.5%
$1,638,863 거래량
$1,638,863 거래량
2026.06.30
5,000억 달러 미만
$266,170 거래량
1%
5,000억~7,500억
$146,331 거래량
3%
7,500억–1조
$141,042 거래량
2%
1조–1.25조
$182,625 거래량
3%
1.25조–1.5조
$496,517 거래량
4%
1.5조+
$101,032 거래량
9%
2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장
$305,147 거래량
68%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s leadership tension and mounting financial commitments have anchored trader consensus around a delayed public listing, with the 67.5% implied probability on no IPO by December 31, 2026 reflecting credible reporting that the company’s aggressive fourth-quarter 2026 target faces internal pushback. CEO Sam Altman continues to favor a near-term filing after the recent $122 billion raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet CFO Sarah Friar has flagged the timeline as overly ambitious given heavy compute spending, expected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion, and the need to establish public-company reporting infrastructure. PitchBook analysis released in early May further shifted sentiment by projecting a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window, citing unresolved regulatory preparations and competitive pressures from Anthropic. No S-1 has been filed, and upcoming catalysts such as earnings clarity or further Microsoft partnership adjustments could still influence resolution probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
마켓 개설일: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
거래량
$1,638,863종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s leadership tension and mounting financial commitments have anchored trader consensus around a delayed public listing, with the 67.5% implied probability on no IPO by December 31, 2026 reflecting credible reporting that the company’s aggressive fourth-quarter 2026 target faces internal pushback. CEO Sam Altman continues to favor a near-term filing after the recent $122 billion raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet CFO Sarah Friar has flagged the timeline as overly ambitious given heavy compute spending, expected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion, and the need to establish public-company reporting infrastructure. PitchBook analysis released in early May further shifted sentiment by projecting a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window, citing unresolved regulatory preparations and competitive pressures from Anthropic. No S-1 has been filed, and upcoming catalysts such as earnings clarity or further Microsoft partnership adjustments could still influence resolution probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
거래량
$1,638,863종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s leadership tension and mounting financial commitments have anchored trader consensus around a delayed public listing, with the 67.5% implied probability on no IPO by December 31, 2026 reflecting credible reporting that the company’s aggressive fourth-quarter 2026 target faces internal pushback. CEO Sam Altman continues to favor a near-term filing after the recent $122 billion raise at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet CFO Sarah Friar has flagged the timeline as overly ambitious given heavy compute spending, expected 2026 losses exceeding $14 billion, and the need to establish public-company reporting infrastructure. PitchBook analysis released in early May further shifted sentiment by projecting a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window, citing unresolved regulatory preparations and competitive pressures from Anthropic. No S-1 has been filed, and upcoming catalysts such as earnings clarity or further Microsoft partnership adjustments could still influence resolution probabilities before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문