Global temperature trends through early 2026 reflect the lingering effects of the strong 2023–2025 El Niño phase, which elevated baseline warmth across ocean and land surfaces. With the ENSO index now shifting toward neutral or weak La Niña conditions, atmospheric and oceanic heat content is expected to moderate, positioning 2026 behind the record-setting prior year in most climate model ensembles. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for a second-place ranking aligns with these dynamics, while the 35% odds for first place account for residual warmth from elevated greenhouse-gas forcing and potential model variability in tropical Pacific cooling rates. Upcoming NOAA and NASA updates on monthly global anomalies will further clarify whether 2026 challenges or falls short of the existing high-water mark.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6위 이하 2.3%
$2,821,597 거래량
$2,821,597 거래량
2026.12.31
1
35%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6위 이하
2%
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6위 이하 2.3%
$2,821,597 거래량
$2,821,597 거래량
2026.12.31
1
$453,744 거래량
35%
2
$325,828 거래량
57%
3
$428,457 거래량
2%
4
$416,574 거래량
3%
5
$732,047 거래량
1%
6위 이하
$464,948 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Global temperature trends through early 2026 reflect the lingering effects of the strong 2023–2025 El Niño phase, which elevated baseline warmth across ocean and land surfaces. With the ENSO index now shifting toward neutral or weak La Niña conditions, atmospheric and oceanic heat content is expected to moderate, positioning 2026 behind the record-setting prior year in most climate model ensembles. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for a second-place ranking aligns with these dynamics, while the 35% odds for first place account for residual warmth from elevated greenhouse-gas forcing and potential model variability in tropical Pacific cooling rates. Upcoming NOAA and NASA updates on monthly global anomalies will further clarify whether 2026 challenges or falls short of the existing high-water mark.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
거래량
$2,821,597종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Global temperature trends through early 2026 reflect the lingering effects of the strong 2023–2025 El Niño phase, which elevated baseline warmth across ocean and land surfaces. With the ENSO index now shifting toward neutral or weak La Niña conditions, atmospheric and oceanic heat content is expected to moderate, positioning 2026 behind the record-setting prior year in most climate model ensembles. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for a second-place ranking aligns with these dynamics, while the 35% odds for first place account for residual warmth from elevated greenhouse-gas forcing and potential model variability in tropical Pacific cooling rates. Upcoming NOAA and NASA updates on monthly global anomalies will further clarify whether 2026 challenges or falls short of the existing high-water mark.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$2,821,597종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Global temperature trends through early 2026 reflect the lingering effects of the strong 2023–2025 El Niño phase, which elevated baseline warmth across ocean and land surfaces. With the ENSO index now shifting toward neutral or weak La Niña conditions, atmospheric and oceanic heat content is expected to moderate, positioning 2026 behind the record-setting prior year in most climate model ensembles. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% implied probability for a second-place ranking aligns with these dynamics, while the 35% odds for first place account for residual warmth from elevated greenhouse-gas forcing and potential model variability in tropical Pacific cooling rates. Upcoming NOAA and NASA updates on monthly global anomalies will further clarify whether 2026 challenges or falls short of the existing high-water mark.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문