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정치·트럼프

누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?

icon for 누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?
정치·트럼프

누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?

케빈 워시 100.0%

주디 셸턴 <1%

케빈 해싯 <1%

크리스토퍼 월러 <1%

Polymarket

$64,453,275 거래량

케빈 워시 100.0%

주디 셸턴 <1%

케빈 해싯 <1%

크리스토퍼 월러 <1%

Polymarket

$64,453,275 거래량

케빈 워시

$14,412,258 거래량

예

주디 셸턴

$23,970,640 거래량

아니오

케빈 해싯

$2,096,549 거래량

아니오

크리스토퍼 월러

$2,229,963 거래량

아니오

제롬 파월

$2,694,321 거래량

아니오

스티븐 미란

$1,672,834 거래량

아니오

스콧 베센트

$4,678,392 거래량

아니오

릭 라이더

$2,086,775 거래량

아니오

미셸 보우먼

$10,611,544 거래량

아니오

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 13 by a narrow 54-45 vote, with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman providing the sole Democratic crossover amid partisan divisions, propelling trader consensus to 100% on his outcome and pricing Judy Shelton and Michelle Bowman near zero. This followed Senate approval of Warsh's Fed Board of Governors seat and advancement through the Banking Committee, solidifying President Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15. The commanding position reflects the final confirmation vote as ground truth for market resolution, with realistic challenges limited to unforeseen procedural reversals, health issues, or late withdrawals—none currently indicated.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$64,453,275
종료일
2026.10.31
마켓 개설일
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

결과 제안됨: 아니오

이의 없음

최종 결과: 아니오

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 13 by a narrow 54-45 vote, with Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman providing the sole Democratic crossover amid partisan divisions, propelling trader consensus to 100% on his outcome and pricing Judy Shelton and Michelle Bowman near zero. This followed Senate approval of Warsh's Fed Board of Governors seat and advancement through the Banking Committee, solidifying President Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15. The commanding position reflects the final confirmation vote as ground truth for market resolution, with realistic challenges limited to unforeseen procedural reversals, health issues, or late withdrawals—none currently indicated.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$64,453,275
종료일
2026.10.31
마켓 개설일
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

결과 제안됨: 아니오

이의 없음

최종 결과: 아니오

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"은 9개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 100%의 "케빈 워시"이며, 이어서 0%의 "주디 셸턴"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 100¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 100%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"은 총 $64.5 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Mar 4, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 9개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"의 현재 유력 후보는 100%의 "케빈 워시"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 100%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 0%의 "주디 셸턴"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.