Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCivil Contract 94%
Strong Armenia 5.9%
Armenia Alliance <1%
Prosperous Armenia <1%
$179,993 Wol.
$179,993 Wol.
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
94%
Strong Armenia
6%
Armenia Alliance
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
<1%
I Have Honor Alliance
<1%
Armenian National Congress
<1%
Bright Armenia
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Civil Contract 94%
Strong Armenia 5.9%
Armenia Alliance <1%
Prosperous Armenia <1%
$179,993 Wol.
$179,993 Wol.
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
$55,234 Wol.
94%
Strong Armenia
$8,965 Wol.
6%
Armenia Alliance
$56,873 Wol.
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
$9,749 Wol.
<1%
I Have Honor Alliance
$7,219 Wol.
<1%
Armenian National Congress
$8,828 Wol.
<1%
Bright Armenia
$7,741 Wol.
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
$7,367 Wol.
<1%
Heritage
$8,236 Wol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$9,835 Wol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Wolumen
$179,993Data zakończenia
Jun 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Wolumen
$179,993Data zakończenia
Jun 7, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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